Last Update: 10/18/2016
See Part 2
Earlier today, I’ve decided to enter Calls on AAPL at $107.66. On my Labor Day Weekend Special video (27:03 mark), I talked about how Apple is cultivating an intermediate-term uptrend, and could continue to move higher to the next gap-fill resistance at $113.30-level; but the short-term resistance is residing at $110ish which is the recent swing high. I think as long as the stock stays above the $105-level, minor to intermediate term sentiment is bullish. More updates later.
Despite of the market weakness this morning, AAPL managed to gap up, and close the day with 2.38% gain. It seems as though we’ve found support at the “50EMA” and the “Gap Support” as you can see in the chart above. Stock is currently trading above the 10/20-day moving average (not shown in the chart) which is a good sign for the minor-term buyers. However, with the “Current Resistance” and with the shooting star candle formation today, fear still looms. If the buyers can able to keep the “Gap” (that was open this morning) open next couple days, I think there is a good chance the bulls can able to break above this “Current Resistance” level. 108.30ish is the next resistance-level to watch, and the $105.30ish is the gap-fill support; if the buyers can able to break above the 108.30-level and stay above it, minor term sentiment, then, shifts back to bullish. I am still holding my Call Options since 107.66.
Last few days (including today), we saw huge surge of buying activities with spike in volume after finding support at the “50-Day MA.” Intermediate-term uptrend has been established & cultivated and the overall/general sentiment is bullish. Currently 116ish is the “Gap Resistance” to watch for tomorrow and early next week, and if the price starts to fall here I would watch “112ish Gap Support” as the next potential level of support. Looking at things in the minor-term perspective though, it does appear to be ‘overbought’, so we may see some slow down or short term pullback for the coming days. I’d say, with last few days move, things are starting to look really bullish looking at things more in the big picture. I did not scalp or closed any partial positions; I am still holding full position I’ve entered at 107.66.
Last few days AAPL has been pulling back after hitting the “Gap Resistance (from previous update)” just three days ago. Obviously intermediate-term sentiment is still bullish while the “50-Day MA” continues to slope upwards and the price still trading above 10-Day MA (not shown in the chart). I see 111.50 – 112.20ish as next potential level of support. Looking at things in the minor-term perspective, some of my oscillators are showing ‘oversold’ sentiment, so I think there is a good chance we may see a bounce or at least some slow down or short-term consolidation on that 112ish-level. Let’s see how AAPL deals with that 112ish potential support-level next few days. I am still holding my call position I’ve entered back in 107.66.
After the repudiation on that “Gap Resistance (9-15-2016 Update)”, AAPL has seen minor-term pullback. Last few days though, we’ve seen some buyers right on that “112ish Support” and trying to hold/bounce. We did throw a Bullish Counter Attack candle yesterday, and seeing slight follow through today with the low volume. The declining volume (last few weeks) conveys that we may have a “Bull Flag” pattern in the last two weeks, which the pattern has NOT been confirmed as of today; the pattern will be in confirmation after the price clears above the $114.68-level (if/when it does, I suspect another rally to the upside). I think that the “Falling Channel / Bull Flag” resistance is level to watch going into tomorrow and this week; should the price continues lower, I think 110.90 & 109.50 levels to watch as a potential level of supports. Still holding full position since 107.66.
“112ish Support” has been holding last 2-3 weeks, and bouncing here with weak volume this week. With ER coming up on the 25th of this month, feels like most traders do not want to commit, hence the grinding-up activities this week. In the minor-term perspective, AAPL has been staying above the 10-Day MA (EMA–not shown on the chart) last three days showing some short-term buying momentum, but again, with uncertainty. Current resistance is “115ish,” and that’s the level buyers want to break above with a strong-bullish action. Despite of its lethargic price-action, the overall sentiment is bullish as of today. I am still holding full position of my call options since 107.66, more updates later.
It’s been little over a month since I’ve have been holding my Calls; though, we’ve had few rocky moments in early-September and late-September, overall the move this trade has been pretty smooth for me. With rising “50-Day MA”, intermediate term sentiment has always been bullish even with minor-term pullbacks, and with today move’s clearing above the “115ish Resistance” (from previous update), it appears to be bullish in the minor-term. As long as the price stays above the $114ish, I think the minor-term sentiment will remain bullish, and I think Apple is aiming at 120-level which is my next target. As of today I am still holding full position of my calls since 107.66.
Its been 38 days since I’ve bought my calls back in 107.66 on Sep. 6th, since then, the stock is up $10.00 and trending upwards very well. “116ish Support” is the current support to watch going into next week, and as long as the price stays above this level, I think we may able to grind higher to my next target at 120. As of today, overall sentiment is still bullish on AAPL while the short-term moving averages are continue to slope upwards. Going into the weekend and next week, I am still holding full position.
Earlier today (chart screened during the mid day) I’ve decided to close 1/2 of my call positions at 118.10, and keep the remainder positions through the ER on the 25th. My decision has been made mostly due to the instability of the overall market in the recent weeks and the prior to ER volatility that could kick in due to investors/traders’ ER outcome uncertainty which may reflect the price as the date gets closer. I believe overall sentiment is still bullish, but it may get rocky anticipating the ER result. After ER, depending on its price-action, I may add more to this position as I am bullish on this stock long term.