Final Update: 2/1/2017
See Part 1
See Part 1
Earlier late morning, I’ve decided to add more @ 109.51 on top of 1/2 of my remaining calls I’ve been holding since 107.66 (1/2 were closed @ 118.10). Currently, the price is near the 100-day moving average while the gap has been filled from 9/14. I do think AAPL is currently at an extreme oversold condition, and I am looking for a sharp bounce in the next week. Should the price continues to deteriorate, 107ish level could be served as next support to watch. My next target range is 118-120 before I unload some of my positions.
Apple is actually working with daily oversold condition last several trading-days. With the ER gap down in late October, investors are still rattled as we did not see much of move despite the fact that most indices performed very well today. Currently, “100SMA” is acting as support while we did see a “Heavy Accumulation” today in volume-I think this is a good sign that we see a bounce sometime soon. I am still holding full positions, and my target remains the same: 118-120ish.
Since my last update, AAPL slipped down to 107ish with the Tech sector being weak last week. On Friday, AAPL did find some bounce and closed @ 108.42 as you can see in the 65-min time-frame chart above. I think the selling pressure is still there and the volatility may continue as long as we are below the 112-price level. Keep in mind though, looking at the daily-chart (not shown here), the price is still holding above the 100-day moving average (see prior update). What you are seeing in this chart is, what we call a bullish divergence. This pattern has been formed, but has not yet been confirmed, so we could say this is an early stage before the possible bounce in the coming week. Full confirmation level will be above 112, and if AAPL can clear and stay above 112, I do believe it will attract buyers to bring the price back up to 117-118ish. Let’s see how it pans out in the next week, I am still calmly holding full positions and remaining positions.
Article via Investing.com “Why Apple Could See A Bounce In Coming Weeks“
After my previous update, it took few days, but looks to be attracting many buyers today with high volume of “Continue Accumulation.” “Bullish Harami” candle stick pattern is now starting to confirm as we are seeing strong bullish candle today after the formation yesterday (see red circle). I think buyers challenge will be 112-resistance that might be acting as resistance in the coming days. As I have depicted potential scenarios with green arrow, if we do see a pullback at 112ish, we would want to see a bounce at 118ish and then break above 112-resistance. If the price breaks well-above the 112-resistance, there might retesting of that 112-resistance as new support before thrusting back up. Let’s see how it plays out in the coming days. I am still holding my remaining calls since 107.66 and full position since 109.51.
After throwing that “Bullish Harami,” AAPL ran up about 5% as of today. This is a good sign for the buyers as the price is now staying “Above 50EMA.” I think as long as we hold 110-111 level, it should continue to move higher. We are nowhere near overbought on the daily, so I think there are lots of room to move here next few weeks. I am still holding remaining calls since 107.66 and added calls since 109.51.
Since my last update, AAPL has retraced back down to retest that 50% Retracement level (highlighted) at 108-109. Currently, minor-term sentiment is bearish, but I think if we can able to see a bounce on this Retracement level (highlighted), the sentiment could turn back to bullish. So if the buyers do show up in this vicinity this week, I think 112.50 is going to be the next stop. Anywhere below 107.30ish could make things hectic for the buyers. Let’s see if we can able to see a bounce this week on this Fib. Retracement level. I am still holding 1/2 of remaining calls since 107.66 and full calls since 109.51.
On my previous update we talked about that 50% Fib. Retracement level (highlighted), today, we did see a pretty strong bounce above our Fib. Retracement Zone. Also with today’s move, it does look like potential Inverted H&S formation (left shoulder on 11/4, head on 11/14, right shoulder on 12/5), and that formation will be confirmed if the price gets well’above 112ish, and looks like we may get there. With today’s move, minor-term sentiment is now bullish and the next resistance is 112.50 vicinity to overcome. Things are starting to look much better here for Apple. I am still holding 1/2 of my remaining calls since 107.66 and full calls since 109.51 as the stock closed today at 111.03.
Great last few days for AAPL longs! We have now broken well-above the 112ish-mark we talked about on the previous update as it bounced off of the 50% Fib. Retracement Zone (highlighted). My target still remains same at 118-120 before I unload some of my Calls. As of today, the sentiment of AAPL is bullish in the minor and intermediate term as long as it stays above 111-112 . I am still holding 1/2 of remaining calls since 107.66 and full calls since 109.51.
AAPL is now reaching the “Gap Open” area, and I think, once it breaches the open gap, it will be quick to fill the gap at 118ish. And that 118ish might act as resistance. Currently, my target is 118 to 120ish as we have another gap at 120-level. If we do see a pullback, I want to see 112ish holding as new-support before the bulls trying again to fill the gap at 118-120. Looks good as of today. I am still holding 1/2 of remaining calls since 107.66 and full calls since 109.51.
Well, since my last update, AAPL has been grinding higher with the series of candles with upper wicks while volume has been drying up (almost feels like the short-term buyers are scared to get in here). Yes, AAPL has been running-on-empty as we are approaching the “118-Resistance” here. I thought about unloading some positions today as we are hitting the ‘overbought’ territory on the daily-oscillators, but I’ve decided not to, at least for today. Mainly, because, my long-term chart still looks very bullish to me; we may get a pullback in this vicinity, but after the pullback or consolidation, I think AAPL might thrive to the upside possibly getting into the 2015 November high level which is at 123ish. Let’s see how it plays out in the next several days. As of today, I am still holding 1/2 of remaining calls since 107.66 and full calls since 109.51.
Finally, the gap at 118 has been filled which was my target but decided to hold my positions here, because I think the much bigger move to the upside might be ahead after either a pullback or consolidation. We did see a bounce right on that “10EMA” just few days ago but if we lose “10EMA” to the downside, I think 20EMA will be next level of a support (currently residing at 114.76) to watch. My next target is now at 123-124 vicinity, and as of today, I am still holding 1/2 of remaining calls since 107.66 (half was closed at 118.10) and full calls since 109.51 as I am preparing to hold through a pullback.
Well, I still haven’t unloaded any of my call positions since my last update. To be fair, I thought we might see a steeper pullback, but we are seeing the “20EMA” acting as support as of today. If we do see a strong bullish-move above the “20EMA,” then we may able to break above the 118ish resistance which that has been haunting the buyers since the mid-December. Let’s see if the “20EMA” holds in the next 3-5 trading sessions. As of today, I am still holding 1/2 of remaining calls since 107.66 (half was closed at 118.10) and full calls since 109.51.
It’s been over 4 months since I first engaged with calls back in 9/6/16 @ 107.66, and closed half of that call positions in 10/18/16 @ 109.61 (see Part 1). On 11/4/16 @ 109.51, I’ve bought the dip with calls and been holding ever since including remaining half positions since 107.66. I am very pleased with the outcome so far, and I thought that it was a good decision that I didn’t close any of my positions when AAPL hit 117ish resistance in late-December. I still think AAPL has more room to run now that we have cleared well-above the 117.50ish resistance (red). I am thinking we may have a slow down at 120ish, but if we can able to clear well-above that level, 123-124 even might be possible before the earnings on 1/31/17. If we get to 123-124ish before the ER, I probably close half of my total positions and hold through the remainings through the ER. As of today, I am still holding remaining calls since 107.66 & full calls since 109.51 as AAPL is trading at 118.99 today.
As the earnings report is approaching just in two weeks (1/31/17), I have decided to close another 1/2 from my total holding-calls earlier today @ 119.94. I thought this was pretty smooth trade once AAPL started get going to the upside above 112. I remember thinking once it cleared 112, that we could have pretty strong and smooth move to the upside, and it definitely was a pretty strong and smooth move. At around 117.50 I did think about closing 1/2 there (which I talked about on “12/28/16 update”–see previous updates), but I made a call to hold through that and I was able to squeeze in some more gains as I closed out 1/2 here @ 119.94. I am going to hold through the remaining calls through the ER on 1/31/17, unless we see a huge spike to 123-124ish level–if we do, I probably close another 1/2 at that level before the ER. We are dealing with minor- to intermediate-term overbought sentiment, so I think we may start to see some volatility and possibly even a short-term pullback. Let’s see how it plays out rest of the week.
I am still holding my remaining call-positions today as AAPL has broken out today from that tightened-range; with most indices breaking out today with sizable gap, I think the environment really boosted the move today on AAPL. We are still dealing with bullish sentiment while entering into overbought territory here, uptrend is strong and is getting respected on every minor-term pullbacks as you can see above (blue rising-support line). I see 123-124 as next resistance, and I think we probably hang around in that vicinity until the ER result next Tuesday. I will be holding my remaining call-positions through the ER on the 31st.
To be honest, I wanted AAPL to miss and gap-down so I can accumulate more as I talked about this on my last Market Update video, that’s how much I was bullish on this stock. I was targeting 130is which I thought we might get there by end of this week after the ER result last night. Well, AAPL soared today, and 129.50ish was good enough for me completely close out my Calls here. 2016 early-September I first engaged with Calls, so its been about 5-6 months position trading as of today and I thought this was pretty smooth transactions once it started to move to the upside. My entry at 107.66 & 109.51 weren’t the best entry, but I was content with the entry around the vicinity as I realize that the shake-down always occurs before it thrives leaving the weak-hands behind. My first 1/2 exit @ 118.10 was immaculate, I couldn’t ask for better exit there before the fast tankage in November. And then another 1/2 exit @ 119.94 was also a good exit knowing that prior ER uncertainty could cause volatility. In to the Earnings I was still holding good size positions, but I felt no pressure as I was locking in some gain before the ER, and I thought to myself even if AAPL misses and gaps down I wouldn’t mind buying that dip as I was very bullish on AAPL long-term.
Overall, I am very satisfied with this trade & the gain, I have to say this was one of the most stress-free trades I’ve made in the last 5-months; I mean the entry-levels were tricky, but once it started to move, it really moved quiet smoothly.