 12.15.12 Saturday
(Chart below posted on 1/15/13)
Before you say it’s completely preposterous to suggest such price level, please let me first explain something.
I know many $AAPL investors already have been burned on this stock and lost much already and I am not here to poke them on the sensitive spot or get them irritated with this article.  I am here to simply warn you and others like I did back in 9/28/12 when I called out $AAPL crash that is on the horizon (You can read about that article here “$AAPL – 10 Reasons of Why I am Extremely Bearish“).  And I hope I am wrong so $AAPL can see some light again and I really don’t care which way the stock moves as long as it moves as I trade both way so I am simply sharing the intensive analysis I did on $AAPL.
I am looking at next major stops of $480, $440, and $360 in about 2-3 months and I will explain further on this article why I think $360 is not an obnoxious number.
Obviously you can imagine how many hate-mails I’ve received for writing such an article back in late September and that’s the problem about cult like followers and investors on $AAPL.  They don’t ever want to take heed of opposite side of the story. There is always other side of the coin and you have to make sure to keep an alert of every possible angle before investing on any stock.  You got to invest/trade smarter.  Back in September, many (not if all) were so fixed on their blind love for the stock that it would go up to $1,000 per share, many analysts like myself banked betting on the other side.  And now many are so convinced that $AAPL is so cheap to get in but I am willing to bet on the other side yet again.
So this is going to be technical heavy article and I am going to go very deep with my analysis to provide best technical analysis available on the blog today and hopefully this time you may take heed and take caution. Â And market is always going to do what it wants to do and I might be wrong as I Â have been wrong many times in the past so don’t listen or follow me blindly but always do your own homework and make sure to make your own decision on your trading.
NASDAQ Composite Index
Before doing an analysis on $AAPL, we have to make sure where the market is headed as a whole because that would make a huge impact on this stock. Â And $AAPL being huge contributor to NASDAQ index, let’s look at that and see where it might be headed. (You can also check out my recent article, overall market crash warning signs for 2013)
($COMPQ (NASDAQ Composite – Weekly Chart))
What you are looking at is this massive bearish divergence on MACD that has been formed. In 2012, we formed very steep and nasty looking bearish divergence that it looks like big down fall is on it’s way. Â If you think the divergences don’t mean anything, make sure to take a look at 2007-2008 MACD divergence before the huge crash, you will think differ on these signals.
And yes these signals do not always have to play out but then again nothing always plays out. Â However the alarming thing about this signal is that we have 2 years worth of bearish divergences confirmed on $DJIA (Dow Jones Index), $SPX (S&P500 Index) as well. So all three indexes with 2 years of worth bearish divergences. Â Well I don’t know about you but I will take SPECIAL heed in the early next year for any optimisms in the stock market.
Also look at last three peaks on this weekly chart here. It looks like we are forming a weekly Head and Shoulders pattern in the midst of this bearish divergence. Â H&S is NOT confirmed yet on the NASDAQ, if anything it’s forming the right shoulder but when the weekly H&S is confirmed (by breaking the neckline below), it’s going to be ugly. Â So yes there is potential market fall that is about to come in the market early next year and this means NO GOOD for $AAPL since $AAPL has already been in this downtrend for 2-3 months now and $AAPL is also formed weekly Head and Shoulders pattern and currently trading at the neckline.
(Interesting chart from allstarcharts.com on $DJIA Dow Jones Index)
Now let’s look at some $AAPL charts, its formation, different time frames, pivot areas, trend lines, and Fib levels to see what we can find out…
Let’s Talk $AAPL
Weekly Head and Shoulders Neckline
(Weekly Chart – Head and Shoulders)
Looking at this line chart, you can clearly see that we have broken the neckline. This is the early stage of confirmation of break of the Head and Shoulders. Of course the further confirmation is required and needed because it could have fake break out and goes right back up. Â But threat from the bears is definitely there. Â (You can read about Head and Shoulders lines and confirmations on $AAPL here)
Here are few scenarios that could happen next week. We might continue bearish and travel lower for few days and then all of sudden it will turn around and comes back up to test that neckline as new resistance. Many times when the H&S is confirmed, it likes to come back up and test the neckline but then again it doesn’t have to but it likes to. Â If the neckline resistance holds true and when it rolls over, the true H&S power will be revealed. Â Just check your last October daily chart on $AAPL. We had daily H&S confirmed, it broke out and then came back up to test the neckline and from there on, it tanked.
So my big concern about $AAPL is that we have breached neckline last Friday and this is where everything could begin. Everything I mean another strong bearish run down.
Recent Support @ $505
(Daily Chart)
Bulls are barely dangling around at the recent support of $505. This $505 is area is not a strong support area unlike $520 which was the major pivot/support area which that had been broken last Friday when it gaped down. Â But that lower wick from 11/16/12 Hammer, could work as short-term support and possibly we could bounce on Monday.
What we could possibly see next week is that we might find some support at this level and travel higher to test that $520 area (and fill the recent gap) as new resistance and if that $520 resistance holds and rejects the price, we would just continue with bearish move which I do think it’s likely that could happen sometime next week.
Next Major Support @ $480
(Weekly Chart Uptrend Support)
This $480 uptrend support also in-syncs with $480 gap area support (double confirmation, double the authenticity)
If we continue to roll over, $480 is going to be the next major support. This is going to be a very strong support because this uptrend support has been established over 4 years of time. I do think this is going to be acting as very strong support which is going to be hard for $AAPL to crack. Â It’s possible that we might find some support and bounce to the upside at this level and come back up and test that $500-$520 level as new resistance. Â Like I’ve mentioned it earlier, when H&S is confirmed, it likes to come back up and test the neckline and if the neckline holds and rejects the price, bearish trend will continue. Since this is a weekly Head and Shoulder pattern, the real neckline testing could happen from this level.
Another argument could be, well we’ve accumulated so much bearish momentum on this stock when we get to this price level (by then we would’ve had weekly H&S fully confirmed) and possibly we will plow right through it.  Because if we find enough bearish momentum to get to $480 level, that weekly Head and Shoulders is fully playing out and with that momentum coming down, I am wondering if that would be strong enough to break this support of $480 right out of this chart.  Maybe or maybe not but nonetheless $480 is going to be very important level to watch out for.
$420 Gap Area Support
(Daily Chart)
So if we break $480 support and continue to head south, $AAPL is headed to fill that gap around $425 level. I do think this is where $AAPL bears would struggle and possibly bulls come back and turn things around all together. Â Possibly we might have some sizable bounce to the upside at this level. Â Â I do think at this level we might find some good amount of buyers who is looking to put some money back in for long term investment for $AAPL.
Let me say this. If we find enough buyers and solid base building activity happening at this level, we might not even get to $360 level. Â If we are still lingering around at this $430-$420 level close to the 2nd QR, I’d think this could become the ultimate bottom for $AAPL. Â I mean I would have to re-evaluate and do my analysis again when we get to this level but I do believe this is pivot is where many investors, traders will be looking at.
But here is my REAL reason of why I think we will also break this support and continue to travel lower. Â It’s the weekly H&S projected price level.
$360 Is The Weekly H&S Projected Target ($140 Drop)
(Weekly Chart)
That weekly H&S projected price target of $360 also lines up perfectly with next major support at $360 on weekly chart as you can see in the red drawn support line that coincides with H&S projected target. Â Projected target is pretty simple to identify. The price movement from the top of it’s Head and to the bottom of it’s neckline. You take that price movement which is about $140, and you measure it from the neckline to the downside and that comes to $360.
Weekly Pivot/Support Confirms $360
And here is fascinating facts about that $360 level. Other analysis confirms that price level. Â Double, triple or even more confirmation is very good thing in Technical Analysis. Â You remember my $110 drop analysis back in late September? Â The huge part of that analysis was not that we had some reversal patterns but the big part of that analysis was that we had multiple reversal patterns confirming each other and on top of each other. Â That was why I traded very heavily on the bearish side back in late September while everyone else was bullish on this stock.
Today we have something similar happening about the price level of $360. H&S projected target is now also confirmed by next major pivot area.  This confirmation alone tells me that there is a high probability (if  weekly H&S reversal is confirmed) that that’s where $AAPL is headed.  But that’s not all, we have more confirmation on that price level.
Weekly 200SMA Confirms $360
Take a closer look at late 2008 and early 2009. Â Weekly 200SMA has been served as critical level before $AAPL truly took off and 200SMA played a huge role in that. Â That was the historical moment for $AAPL to take off from $100 per share to $700 per share (700% gain) in just about 4 years of time. Â And that’s a big event and if 200SMA played that role, I do think we should take a special heed for upcoming event that could possible take place in this price level of $360. Â This weekly 200SMA possibly become another savior for $AAPL and if we find ourselves at this level of $360, I wouldn’t be surprised this weekly 200SMA will act as strong pivot area for it to bounce again.
All Time 50% Retracement Confirms $360
(From Top to Bottom)
(Weekly Chart)
When or if soaring stock crashes, 50% drop is pretty reasonable I would say. Again weekly Head and Shoulders is the key thing here. We are still at a early stage to say that the H&S is fully confirmed and for this massive crash to play out, we will need Market as a whole to roll over as well. If $AAPL’s weekly H&S is fully confirmed with Market as a whole rolling over, $360 is not an obnoxious argument. Â I am sure many big fund managers are looking at similar price level like myself. Â And let me go further and explain looking at the monthly chart of why $360 will be my ultimate bottom of the bottom for $AAPL.
Monthly Pivot/Support Confirms $360
(Monthly Chart)
After monthly Evening Star reversal, this chart looks pretty ugly if you asked me but sweet to those whom are shorting the stock from the top. On this monthly chart, we’ve broken all the major supports at $550-$520 level and I don’t see any pivotal area until $360 level. Â You can see it on this monthly chart and you can agree with that.
So let’s recap.
- $360 has been confirmed by weekly Head and Shoulders break out projected target
- $360 has been confirmed by weekly pivot (support) area
- $360 has been confirmed by weekly 200SMA as pivotal price level
- $360 has been confirmed by monthly pivot (support) area
- $360 has been confirmed by all time 50% Fib Retracement level
And these are the reasons why $360 is going to be very CRITICAL and PIVOTAL level if $AAPL decides to move fast and furiously to the downside.
Last time they fully crossed to the downside was late 2008 so it has been almost 4 years since these two have been united (to the downside) so keep an eye on it. Â In the event that these two long term moving averages cross, that’s a huge SELL signal for big fund managers and many investors including fundamentalists. They all look at these long term moving averages.
Thank you Kim, and as always very detail and in-depth analysis, really enjoy your articles, I received some hate email from my friends also when I suggest based in my analysis that Apple is going down to $480. Keep up the good work
@ammar123 thnx bro~ yea i’ve already received several hate tweets lol  as I expected to receive from uninformed traders who follow the stock cult-like or blindly with bubble optimisms. But this is a warning that could possibily play out.
Just wondering what your thoughts were on the chances of this being a potential double or W bottom here, which has been suggested as a strong possibility?
@SimonCampbell possible yes. strong possibility as of today? no. Because we don’t have any data to conclude that the double bottom bounce has begun.  Last friday’s candle does not suggest that we are bouncing to make double bottom.  And that doesn’t mean we can’t have double bottom on Monday and next week because we certainly can but as of today we don’t have the confirmation of that argument.  If you look at past price actions, $AAPL don’t normally bounce with double bottom after a huge fall. $AAPL likes the V bottom or consolidate before full on reversal after a fall. So I say if anything we might be forming a consolidation here if possible.  But what we can conclude is that last Friday’s candle, breached weekly Head and Shoulder’s neckline. And that’s why we have high possibility that the weekly H&S is starting to play out..
@2kaykim On the weekly pattern, what would make that an inverted hammer?
@BananaStand not an inverted hammer
@2kaykim thanks for the very quick response…makes sense. If I read it correctly we wouldn’t have confirmation of a potential double bottom until we breached somewhere around 595, and really don’t have a good indication that that’s possible now-except for the fundamentals, which are strong, but with sentiment and momentum negative and with the end-of-year etc, hasn’t seemed to matter much. Usually the cash, holiday quarter, coming earnings, PE, and the stocks history of sharp moves etc would support a turn up from around here, with bears growing increasingly nervous…but hasn’t happened yet, certainly not since that first move to 590 about 13 trading days back. Certainly impressive (and a bit shocking) to see such swift market cap losses that are getting to be equal to cumulative market cap of a good number of their competitors…or somewhere around 1 whole Samsung with possible so e Google, RIMM and Nokia as well…. If the Market is in fact rational, could indicate fear of something dramatically wrong with the company. My experience though is that it’s very often not even a little rational…certainly don’t think apple is anything like Enron or Worldcom, but seems fear is out there. Or perhaps it’s just uncertainty and technical trading..
Hi Kim,
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This is a good technical analysis. I am looking at the fundamentals. We all agree that this quarter should be the strongest quarter for Apple as the holiday season. If the stock will be heading $360 at Feb. 2013, which is right after its strongest quarter earning release, how do we interpret this stock drop to $360 meanwhile it just released its strongest earning report of $50B+ with an EPS of $13+. I can understand your chart analysis, and appreciate the detailed work. I just do not know how to interpret this chart analysis combined with the fundamentals, which I also think is important
Hi Kim,
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I have anther question based on the fundamentals. If Apple stock drops down to $360 next Feb as you suggested may happen, it means Apple’s market cap will be down to $350B. But with $130B+ cash and continue to have annual revenue of around $200B and EPS of $50, it seems difficult to believe such a company with market cap of only $350B. On the other hand, purely from chart point of view, your analysis make sense as well. Should we totally decouple fundamentals from technical analysis here? Your comment on this is highly appreciated.
@Marketview well i dont know.. i can’t answer you on that one. I only trade off of technicals and not fundamentals. in fact i don’t know how all of that stuff even works.  I guess you can ask your self about that market cap and the all other fundamental stuff when the stock was trading at $700. The fundamental was great with iPhone 5 and iPad mini coming on the way and going into the holiday season.  That was late september.  so how did $700 stock lose $200 points within 2 months with such a great fundamental numbers?  well again i dont’ know. And i guess it was good thing that I didn’t know because I made lot of $$$ buying Puts at around $700 until about $540. Fundamental vs Technical have always been opposite side of the spectrum for a while now and its not often that they agree. So I would do your fundamental analysis on $AAPL and if that has been working out well for you, trade accordingly based upon your fundamental research.   hope this helps.  thnx for your question though.
if I have never read the book ‘ How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market ‘ by Nicolas Darvas . I will have a same question for Kim. Even half century ago, the market isn’t works well at the fundamentals ways at all…. He made his $2,000,000 all depend on the technical analysis.. it was very surprised me when I read about it….but I realized that the technical could works very well for make $$$ on the market.
@followkim nice yea i read that book like 4 years ago~
@2kaykim Are you still reading some good investing book ? if yes I would like to know the name of the book that you are reading now? Good night Kim ! will talk to you tomorrow:-)
Thank you so much Kim !!! Love your works and it is so very much well done:)
Hi Kim, another great article. Thank you so much for sharing. I was checking your Bearish Trading Journal and didn’t see many updates. So, what are you holding right now? I guess still puts? Thanks. Keep up the good work!
I think it would take another bad earnings for apple to continue it’s bearish head and shoulders. I think that would keep it in the $400s. We would have to see a double dip recession for owners of apple to throw in the towel and panic back into the $300s. Which I can see happening by next year. Interesting thing is that a head and shoulders reversal should place Apple at $360 at some point in time and looking at the chart, that price happens to perfectly take out all the big gains that Apple had for 2012. In another words the neck line lands right in the middle between the bottom support during 2nd half of 2011(between Aug and Dec) and $700 top. Almost EXACTLY!
@Zex_M19Â yea i agree bro… id say possibly after another bad earnings we can see the ultimate target of $360 and that could be by March…
@2kaykim Bro, u r sill in your puts? I am still in. Today AAPL closed right on the neckline. If we break tomorrow that weekly HS neckline I will add more. If we break neckline tmw I think $480 is imminent…
@solonik hey yea i got stopped out few days ago but I entered bearish yesterday before close and at open this morning. I am pretty heavily loaded right now and with the futures tanking.. i guess i might benefit from it!
Just finished reading “How to make money in the stock market” by William O’Nell. I really like his approach to technical analyse. He doesnt accept and doesnt rely much on some of technical formation like triangles, coils, and pennants. He doesnt even really rely on Triple bottoms and head-and-shoulders bottoms patterns cause he thinks that those patterns are weak. BUT he thinks when it comes to signifying a top in a stock,  head-and-shoulders top patterns are among the most reliable. And he thinks that the right(second) shoulder must be slightly below the left shoulder. My observation from this article and the book I just read: AAPL weekly chart formed exact HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern(with right shoulder lower than the right) which William O’Nell refers to some of the most powerful top patterns… AAPL lower imo…
@solonik i do agree with some of stuff hes saying.  sometimes those patterns could work against you because so many people look at them as some kind of “MUST HAPPEN” pattern but the reality is the patterns are nothing more than just showing its sentiment and the psychological behavior and the pattern does not always play out. At times they dun seems to play out at all..  and i do like how he valids the head and shoulder pattern as good reverseral signal to the downside and i do agree. I’ve been backtesting alot lately and i see that H&S pattern seems to always break out without fail.
There needs to be a reason why apple will go lower from here and continue it’s head and shoulders pattern other than just people selling. There needs to be a fresh reason to sell more even at these levels. There also needs to be a reason why it would bottom out at the bottom of a head and shoulders. Looking ahead, we can see the fiscal cliff as being the obvious one. Then possibly Jan earnings. If Apple is already at $360 before earnings then the earnings could put a floor on this stock and bounce it up. But if Apple is way above $360 then earnings could cause it to drop to send it towards that $360 level. So for me, it’s more of where this stock is at, at what time (cause it could mean that certain expectations are priced in). If AAPL is at $360 and they report bad earnings, it could send it soaring cause all bad news was priced in (seen it so many times, also with the reverse situation). Another big catalyst is the TV. More and more rumors of Apple creating a TV is starting to bring in some buyers. As usual, I will wait until some official announcement for the event and buy that day. AAPL should rise all day until close. Then I will sell and wait until the day before event to buy option calls again. AAPL will rise the day of event and then I will sell again.
Just a strategy that I have been using well for a few years now. Pattern stays the same because of the psychological impact that these announcements have on investors. That is what works for me so I thought I would share it. Good luck to all!
@Zex_M19Â hey thnx for sharing! Â good insights. Â TBH i really dun care which way $AAPL moves. Because of that weekly head and shoulders pattern and the fiscal cliff talk and also the indexes showing massive bearish divergences so i am leaning towards to bearish but truthfull as long as they move i will ride that move. Â anyway as of now, $500 must be broken before further discussion of the downside~
$510 has been quite a floor. Closed around this number several times but refusing to break.
I’m looking at the 1 month chart and I am seeing a pennant forming (lower highs and same lows).
That would indicate a breakout of the upside or downside soon since we are near the tip.
Last high was at $520 and like I said earlier, the floor seems to be at $510. Looks like this could move big next week….and what are we waiting for next week? That’s right, the fiscal cliff. I willing to bet that they don’t get the votes needed to pass next week. Thus pushing Apple past the tip of the pennant and resuming it’s bearish trend.
I will wait to see what happens and then put in my position. Who knows, I might get surprised and they get something done and Apple soars upward? Good luck everyone.
Also noticed that volume has been drying up during the last few days which confirms a pennant formation. Now we just need it to move with big volume soon.
@Zex_M19Â yes I see bearish pennant on the weekly chart. if you flip it to the line-chart, you will see that the pennant is forming just under the neckline of potential H&S formation on the weekly. Â all in all the break is coming upside downside no one truly knows but if i had to guess, id guess to the downside
Kay, thanks for you help. When Apple broke $500 this morning I bought a lot of puts right away. But it went close to $480 (your next support) right away (near 483?). If I didn’t read your article here, I would have held and lost money or at best, break even. Now I locked in profits and will wait for next move. Over 6 digits in one of my accounts today thanks to the trade!
@Zex_M19Â hey Zex. yea $480 is going act as pretty strong support.. its been established over 4 years of time.. I would think it would grind in that area and subsequently pop… to retest $505 area or even to test the $515 gap level.. which at that moment Id be looking into short again.
@2kaykim agree. i could even see it oversold at 477 (i believe that is the bottom of the gap) tomorrow only to bounce up and close in the $480s. Yes, that would mean that we took out the huge mountain run up from last year. Jim Cramer threw in the towel last night. and with the volume we are getting, we could be seeing capitulation. earnings is next week so either we see the support and a quick bounce back up (which I also agree with your numbers cause those were the support levels last time and usually the previous support becomes the new ceiling), then come back down in time for earnings.
It’s make or break earnings. To break 4 year pattern, it would take something big and earnings is “something big”.
@2kaykim Have you seen the chart pattern of a bubble? If you don’t, I can email you it and maybe you can post it here. Apple look exactly like it right now. But there is a point after it starts going down that it rebounds up on a bull trap. There was a point in which apple popped back up. Not sure if that was it or not. If Apple pops up after earnings then I would say it is a trap and will fall back down keep falling all summer. Big drop in apple might take months! But then again, so did the housing market and the whole stock market when it crashed in 2008/2009.
@Zex_M19 yea u can email that to me , let me take a look  kkim@2tradersclub.com
@2kaykim just emailed you the diagram. useful chart to use for ANY bubble.
@Zex_M19Â yea i got it.. yea its interesting chart. Â i think only think aapl investors are looking foward to is possible gap up on the 23rd…
$480 broken in AH!!!!
Headed to $420 I guess.
Could happen by Friday (weekly options expiration).
Downtrend continues!!!!
Someone on CNBC (Jeff Gundlach) said this is headed to $425. That’s the same price as the gap fill. Not sure when that will happen but we could be sure of seeing some panic selling today. I hate to chase but with no floor right now until $520-$530, it’s hard not to. It’s just BS that we can’t trade options in AH or Pre-market when people can trade stocks during those times. Once AAPL fell through $480 in AH yesterday, I would have loaded up on puts and would have done very well. Oh yeah, NFLX has like 25% of float short. OUCH!!!
@Zex_M19Â I agree bro~ Â I am still sitting on cash on $AAPL. Â I thought about going in with puts right at open but I decided I was going to wait. Â I am just waiting for a pop to maybe test that $480 level as new resistance. Â I am just not gonna chase it at this point, need better entry.
@2kaykim  @Zex_M19 , I just found your site and am glad I did. I am losing my shorts in Apple. I’m fairly new to trading, started last year at the beginning when Apple started to pop. So I sold Apple last year without any knowledge of charts and such. Everytime I sold it, it rose again. So I decided to stay long and strong. I am now down $150,000 since the Sept peak, from $221,000 to $71,000, always thinking it would go back up again. I can’t hold this stock much longer if it keeps going down, because a lot of the shares are on margin. I should have put in a stop in the $500.00 area, but that would mean I actually lost the money, instead of just a paper loss. Do you still feel the stock will hit $360.00? If so, what is the upside? Thanks, Kim.
@JackGodoy  @Zex_M19 hey sorry to hear Jack. (are you the same jack just emailed me today? if not, dun worry about it).  Market has the ability to play with our mind.  Since you lost money shorting while $AAPL was going up now you try different method which going long while $AAPL is going down.   Usually it happens because humans don’t like to admit that they were wrong. (enough of psychology stuff).. Always always trade with stops.  Before you get in know your entry strategy and know how much you are willing to lose (stop) and where your target is. Without any kind of game plan, its going o be disastrous everytime.   I do see that $425 is going to be a support. If bounce, I see it going back up to $480-$500 level for a retest.  And the long term downtrend line will take effect and I believe its going to roll over harder at that point down to my ultimate target $360.  GL.
Hi kay!
So it looks like we are going to fall further, maybe even 425 by tomorrow, but one question I have is, do you take into consideration open interest in options? There is this “theory” (or maybe it’s more like a conspiracy, lol) that the highest OI on a strike tends to act as a barrier to further movement (either up or down). Of course, it’s not a hard and fast rule and it doesn’t always work – it overshoots, and during Apple press events and ER’s all of it is out the window, but more often than not, it is surprisingly reliable.Â
So, for example, highest OI on the weekly calls this week is 460, and highest OI on the puts side is 440. That would mean, that around 440 and 460 are the lowest and highest one would expect AAPL to go (this week). I’m thinking, that it now has room to run down to 420 (bollinger bands have expanded down on the daily to that level), but would you consider the 440 OI in your analysis? It’s still early in the week, and highest OI “goalposts” can move and solidify to other strikes, but I’m looking to close out a call that I sold last week that I’m up nicely on, and actually take those profits and flip it into some long April monthly calls (“for a trade only” as TraderFlorida might say, lol, which means a day trade). I have found, that one can do pretty nicely in trading this kind of ping-pong action in AAPL.Â
But don’t get me wrong, the general direction in AAPL is down, until 360, as you say!
@keizer_soze Hi Keizer.  Everytime I am asked of that question (highest OI) I think of that millionaire show. You know wut im talking about?  There is a option where you can “Ask the Audience” for the answer. I feel like too many people are using let’s “Ask the Audience” option to trade the stocks.  I never. I mean never look at that as any indicator for my trading.  If you know that most common people are wrong about the direction why would you want to follow them? I am sure its right sometimes but then again its only 50/50 shot so how much can you trust?   I’ve been swing trading $AAPL and it has been very profitable if you know when to get in and when to get out.  Many are saying that $AAPL is day trader’s stock but i completely disagree as I dun day trade (ever)…   I’ve been holding puts since last Tuesday.. and along the way I’ve added to my positions. I am looking to ride it until about $425 and then i believe its gonna find some support there.  good luck
This is dividend week for apple. probably why this is staying afloat. (ex-dividend date is this Thursday so you need to be in before that to receive anything)
I am starting to see a formation of a pennant. (Top part at 460 while bottom was at 435 and now at 440).
a support at 445 end of this week or early next week should support this. then explodes up or down.
No news (or bad news/downgrade) will obviously bring this down (even bad economic news or market top?). But maybe a product launch announcement in the next few weeks (tip of pennant) pushes it back to $480?
@Zex_M19Â it looked like bulls try to make a run for it yesterday and today but failed today. Its either bearish pennant or bullish double bottom… Chart will tell us where its going and how that dividend is gonna effect it
Kay, apple hit support at 445 on end of day tuesday and open on wednesday only to hit the 465 ceiling twice afterwards. Looks more like a pennant forming. 450 next support. so we should see a big move middle or late next week the earliest. Market feeling a little top heavy but I’m feeling a bit bullish on Apple. if apple breaks out of 465, I will buy calls (run to fill that gap at 480-485). will wait to see what happens first. they need to announce something like a product launch next wednesday for it to break out. dividends not doing it. they should be announcing something soon but instead they mention bigger iPad. if they don’t announce soon, then you gotta worry about lack of new products in the line…then we could see this break down with no new products. if not now then next earnings will show bad results due to no new products. But I expect announcement in March if they have anything. then they sell product the next week, right before quarter ends usually to help boost quarter numbers.
I mean end of day monday and tuesday morning it hit 445
@Zex_M19Â looks like we might be going up to test that $490-$500 level
@2kaykim Jez! We might hit that $485 number (to fill the gap) by end of day today!
@Zex_M19Â yea bro. im holding calls since yesterday and i wont be holding it for long
@2kaykim awesome! I was watching apple all day yesterday and noticed the huge fast move. I didn’t even question what it was about, i bought weekly calls. when it opened up higher today, I knew nothing was stopping this until it filled the gap so I bought some more calls this morning. I hope to cash out today if I am lucky. GO $485!!
@2kaykim $484.94 today. good enough for me (was looking for $485). unload my calls today and will wait for a time to buy puts. maybe if it approaches $500 or if $485 doesn’t hold.
if you look at 6 months candle chart, apple has peaked at 45ema 3 times. Yeah unusual number but it’s a fact. It did so on october 17, nov 30, and jan 2 then down 2days in row after all 3 times. right now 45 ema is at 503. if this continues up we could hit it below $500 in a few days from now. then I will buy the crap out of the puts. makes sense if this approaches $500 we could see some strong selling due to psychological number. will wait and see. good luck everyone.
@Zex_M19Â i actually want it go to up to $500 but looking at last 3 trading days action, its really weak plus the longterm downtrend coming up very quickly here~ will see!
@2kaykim I agree. I would love for it to hit $500 cause it would be an easier short/puts than here. But after all the good news (rumors of iWatch, confirmation of higher dividend or stock buyback, AND Home Depot switching to iPhones), it looked weak this morning and ended weak end of day. It should have done much better. But then again it did fill the gap to 485. Storm in east coast and Chinese New Year hurt the volume. Looked so weak, I almost bought puts today. Cook to speak tomorrow morning. If they don’t like what they hear (no increase in dividends or buybacks) then apple could tank. Speaking at 10:15am eastern time. Speech moved up, my guess is because I heard Cook will be sitting next to Michelle Obama in state of union speech tomorrow night. Look for stock action after 10:15 am.
TIm Cook said nothing special. market doesn’t like. Looks like the $485 gap fill was it. going back down now. probably down tomorrow too after Obama says how Apple is bring back jobs to the USA. More expensive jobs. Lower margins for Apple. Not good for shareholders.
@Zex_M19Â yea didn;t even listen to the conference and instead entered bearish lil bit after open this mornining.
@2kaykim I’m closing my bearish position today. conference next week could send shares upward leading up to event. just like last time it did before cook spoke. and then probably drop after that because there will be nothing big said. good luck.
@Zex_M19Â do you know exactly when the conference gonna be next week>?
@2kaykim Feb 27 (wed). hard to find date but was in article involving greenlight law suit…
http://www.cellular-news.com/story/58503.php
Contratulations on ur call back in September 2012, I take my hat off. U are impressive. Thank you for ur feedback.
@gumbotrader thank you for noticing and your kind words.
Kay, the old bottom is now the new top on Apple?
I’ve been watching today’s action and I noticed that aapl his tried several attempts to go above 435 (the old low) today. If it did break it, it didn’t last long. I realized that that was was the old low. You could draw a line straight across 435 and see how it seems to bump into it.
I would have to wait until the end of the day but maybe this could be a new ceiling (the old floor). Right around 435-440? Just a thought. Good luck.
@Zex_M19Â nope my floor is $360 and my analysis still stands
Samsung with new phone next thursday. That could break the 420 support. Apple could head back up a few points and trade horizontal until late next week. I’m looking to start buy puts early next week during days when it is up.
Hey kim, nicely done on apple from the beginning. You were one of the few calling the top with good tech. analysis. Do you see apple going below $420? It eventually made a lower bottom every time it rebounded since the time. Seeing it rebounded from $420 to $460 and reversed today do you see it going lower again? Thx in advance!
Killerfunpizza1Â thnx. Â We break $420, I believe $360 is where its headed. We are continue to make lower highs and lower lows.
Saw it break $420 this morning. I threw everything including the kitchen sink at it buying weekly puts! Bought the weekly $410 puts below $2 and sold all at $10 (put in limit order sell right after I bought them all) thinking it was going to $400 by tomorrow. Well it hit my price target of $10 and everything sold. (it happened as AAPL hit thye lows of the day) Most money I made in the shortest time ever, today. And that is after 7 years of trading! My hands were actually shaking as I put in the buy orders! Now i wait for GOOG. I already have small weekly puts in GOOG and PCLN. Nothing much. Lost some $$$ in my trade on GLD. Kay, thanks for your help. I wouldn’t have been so confident in getting in and out of these key levels if it wasn’t for your great chart work! When AAPL finally does hit that support level, it will bounce off of it bigger than today’s fall. I will be patient and wait for it, it will be worth it if I can make money like I did today. Until then, I will continue to by puts in AAPL and GOOG when opportunity knocks. Good luck!
I think I meant I bought the April monthly puts. The ones that expire this Friday. Not the weekly.
Looks like I sold at the the top. The highest price for those $410 puts was $10 today. That would be me. 🙂
Sold my PCLN puts. Was looking to dump near $700. Didn’t think it would so close to it today. Now just holding my 2 puts for GOOG.
2kaykim Hello Kay, Great article. Do you still think 360 is apple’s bottom?
sftstars yes I am but I could be wrong
2kaykim Hey Kim, I am a huge apple bull since 60 dollars. I recently sold all I apple shares and look to buy back. Do you still think 360 is the bottom?
sftstars I would have to see how it reacts to $360 level and also the ER result next week but I am thinking we could get to $360 before finding some major support.
2kaykim sftstars At this point when do you advise to initiate a position? 360 before earnings would you buy before earnings or wait until after? Your analysis has been incredibly on target! Great job if you could do this with other stocks you could surpass Einhorn.
sftstars i would wait until after ER and not chase after this move if you are not already in it.  thank you for your kind words!