Why I’ve Been Accumulating AMZN This Year

BOTTOMING CALL

Back in late 2022, after a grueling year of bear market, I started to observe the market intensely in an attempt to ascertain if the major lows are in (if the market has bottomed).

There were crucial signals which I’ve discovered on the major indices such as S&P 500 (watch the video) and NASDAQ (see chart below).  Once I’ve realized that we have a good chance of the market bottoming, I started my search on the equities; I wanted to find quality stocks that has been beaten down heavily, that I could accumulate, to add to my value investing positions.

And one of them was AMZN, and let me explain why.

-60% CRASH

2023 was the only time AMZN crashed close to -60% since the 2009 financial crisis–we’ve never seen AMZN go down this much over a decade.

You remember the NASDAQ chart above? This is the first time, in 13 years, AMZN came down close to 60% since the peak. With the NASDAQ showing major reversal signal similar to 2009 while AMZN crashing down similar to 2009, I saw the correlation here.

Well, back in 2009, I was a newbie and I had no idea what I was doing. So I obviously, I didn’t buy 2009 lows on AMZN or any stocks for that matter (if I did I was too scared to hold!). But what if I did? Can you imagine, if I knew what I knew now back in 2009? But 2009 will never come back again but similar setup could, right?  I didn’t want to miss this opportunity which that just presented to me on AMZN, the setup that is very similar to 2009 lows.

I needed more information to really lock it down.

THE TIPPING POINT

Below is indicator is my specially modified indicator to figure out when the selling is drying up and when the accumulation phase occurs after a heavy selling in the market.

As you can see, during 2001, AMZN crashed down extremely heavily (this was the lows of tech ‘dotcom bubble’ crash). If you observe the “TIPPING POINT” you can see the point when the selling completely dries up (see red arrows) while the accumulation phase come back to the market.

EARLY 2023

Same thing occurred here; selling pressures dries up (red arrows) and the “TIPPING POINT” occurs. That was the moment, earlier this year, that I knew I had to acquire and acquire ALOT of it.

OSCILLATOR

• Since 2007, the monthly-oscillator cross (when it crosses back up near the oversold zone–see red circles) has never failed to make a new trend at least for the next 2-3 years.
• During late 2022, the monthly-oscillator hit the extreme oversold zone which is lower than 2008-2009 crash.
• But once I saw the oscillator crossing back up early this year along with my “TIPPING POINT” analysis to confirm, I realized we have very good chance that AMZN is putting in a major low here.

SENTIMENT INDICATOR

• This indicator is pretty self-explanatory
• AMZN stock corrects, the indicator will cross down (see black outer line that comes back in from the peak)
• But when the stock is ready to go back up, the black outer line crosses back up (see red arrows)
• Since 2009, this reversal signal yielded about 2-4 years run in the market
• I believe there is a good chance, starting from early 2023, we could see 2-3 years of bullish run with short to mid term fluctuations/corrections along the way

(AMZN daily sentiment indicator)

👇 I WILL REPLY TO ALL QUESTIONS BELOW (*NO LOGIN REQUIRED)

• Do you agree with my analysis or do you think it might be different this time?
• What are some of the value investing stocks you got in this year or watching to get in?
• Do you believe that the correction is over and new bull market has begun?
• Or you believe that we are still in a bear market and we are only witnessing bear market rally now?