Last Update: 7/11/2017
Earlier this morning I’ve decided to add more Calls @ 60.53 (closing price today is 60.21 as it did fade towards end of the day). I was actually hoping to see the gap stays open today, but my wish didn’t pan out. But I still like the overall picture here as Citi is now trading above my EMAs. For bullish momentum to continue, price needs to get back above 60.50ish, otherwise we may experience little bit more pullback to 59.50-59.00ish and I am okay with that. Let’s see how it plays out tomorrow and early next week. Now, I am holding my long-term calls (full positions) since 60.53 & 61.28.
I was impressed how resilient Citi (C) was as it held above the “Pivot” level all throughout last week, while the Financial Sector (XLF) has declined as much as -2.5% since the 5/4/17 highs. Even when Financial Sector (XLF) put in new low of the week on Friday, Citi put in new high of the week on Friday. So we can see that Citi group is showing relative strength compare to rest of the Financial stocks, which is a good sign for the buyers. “20EMA” is still rising while it has been acting as strong support last several weeks, so minor-term ‘benefit of the doubt’ goes to the buyers. I see 60.60ish as current support while 61.90ish as current resistance. Let’s see how it plays out in the next several days here. I am still holding my full call-positions since 60.53 & 61.28.
As I have tweeted out this morning, Citi is now printing new 52-week high as the buyers surge in as the stock is breaking out well-above the March 8th highs closing the day with 62.49 (+1.74%). Again we are seeing relative strength on Citi (C) vs the rest of the Financials (XLF). With the “Volume Spike” today closing above the 62ish resistance, Citi is now breaking out of the consolidation (last four months) pattern, or you could say that the uptrend is resuming after four months of rest. I am open minded to a possible pullback to retest 61-62ish pivot as a new support, but it’s also possible we continue to grind higher; either way, I am very pleased with price-action last few weeks here. I think Citi is eyeing on 65-67 as I am still holding my full call-positions since 60.53 & 61.28.
This is what I call a ‘shenanigan‘ move (last Wednesday), which market loves to throw at a pivotal moment just to make weak-hands scared out of the trade and/or shake some people out before getting right back up. Price dipped below the 60-pivot level (red horizontal) and the “Rising 20EMA” back in last Thursday. However, next day on Friday, price gaped up and stay well-above the “Rising 20EMA.” Well, today, we are just back at where the “shenanigan” started last Wednesday at around 62ish level–gotta love this market! I am still targeting 65-67ish before I unload any of my Calls, and current resistance to watch is at 62.50ish. Let’s see how it plays out rest of the week. Still calmly holding all of my CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28.
Citi is having hard time at around 62-62 area as it has been acting as resistance for sometime going back to late-December and early-March. The price would have to breakout well-above that area for it to really fly to my target at 67ish. The minor- to intermediate-term sentiment still remains bullish as the “50EMA” still acting as support (blue box) since early May of this year. We did throw a Hammer candle on Thursday and the Engulfing candle on Friday; I think bulls are going to retest the 62-63 resistance yet again this week. Let’s see if we can able to break above the resistance this time. Still calmly holding all of my CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28.
“50EMA” held strong yesterday and we saw a gap-up follow through today with strong volume. Looks like Bulls are going to retest that 63ish rising-resistance once again; but the question remains, are we going to break that resistance this time around? Well, we do have higher lows and the trading range has been getting tighter since the late-March. Meaning, we are not seeing big fluctuations like we did in January – February (9% correction) and March – April (9% correction), which can be translated as buyers are getting more aggressive buying the dip as it pulls back. In mid- to late-May, the stock only pulled back 4.9% (compare to 9% each time in Feb and April) showing bit more confidence stance in the buying pressure. Once this thing breaks out, I do think it flies to 67ish which is my next target before unloading my positions. Still calmly holding all of my CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28.
Citi broke out today as it broke well-above the rising-resistance closing the day with +2.15%, showing relative strength versus the rest of the Bank sector XLF +1.15%; also with record high buying-volume spike since Dec-2016 on Citi. Citi had been in this sideway-range for about 6 months before the breakout today, so, many traders are asking can we finally see a bullish-run like we’ve seen in the second half of 2016. I think it’s possible, but first, I think we would need to hold this gain and make this breakout legit, meaning we would need to hold today’s gain and not fall back inside of this sideway-range. Should the price fall back next week, buyers need to make sure to keep the price stay above 62; in the event that price falls below 62, things could get ugly fast for the bulls. First level of support I see is 62.20ish level which is I am open-minded for the retest, but also possible that the buying-momentum could continue to the upside. As of today I am still calmly holding all of my CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28.
Since my last update price has advanced with the gap-up move last Friday, and we did have another run-up higher this morning but faded later. So here are few levels to watch as support should the price continues to decline from this point on. First level of support is 63.88 – 63.22ish which is the “Gap” area, second level of support is 62.65ish which is the rising-pivot (blue dotted) support. I think as long as the price stays above those levels, it can get to my target at 67ish. It will be better for buyers if they can protect the “Gap” to be remain unfilled, but it won’t be end of the world if it does get filled–and probably will act as support if it does get filled. I am still calmly holding all of my CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28.
Since the last update, price has been slightly declining in a controlled manner in this tight range that potential be a bullish “pennant” pattern. Of course, like all other patterns, it requires a breakout to confirm this bullish pennant pattern. “Gap” still remains open, which conveys that traders are optimistic in the minor-term as of today–hence the tight-range consolidation last week or so and finding support in that 63.80ish area. At this point, I am open minded for a breakout to the upside or breakdown to the downside to retest the “Rising Pivot.” So if we breakout from this bull pennant, I think we can get to 66+ pretty quickly; if we breakdown, 62.20 – 63.20 as a strong support. I am still calmly holding all of my CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28.
The “pennant” pattern I talked about on my last update is starting to look like a bull flag pattern today right on that rising “20EMA.” Gap has been filled on Friday which could provide as support going into next week. 62.20ish – 62.50ish is strong support to watch next week should the price continues to slide. Last few weeks of down turn seems more like a controlled consolidation/continuation pattern before thrusting higher. My next target remains same at 67ish before unloading some of my CALLS as I am still holding all of my them since 60.53 & 61.28.
20EMA held and the bull flag breakout confirming today. My next target on Citi is still 67ish as the uptrend is healthy with decent volume increase today. As long as the price stays above the rising 20EMA, benefit of the doubt goes to the buyers. Weekly and monthly charts (not shown) starts to really support bullish case in the long-term, let’s see how it plays out remainder of this week. I am still holding all of my CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28.
It was a huge last few weeks for Citi (C); it gaped up 3% last Thursday after the news hit that Citi is going to double it’s dividends, and then next day it held it’s place. I held my full positions through the weekend as I’ve tweeted on Friday. Today, even with the holiday trading, Banks (XLF) outperformed (+1.46) compare to S&P 500 (+0.17%) and in that environment more investors flocked into the stock and at its peak Citi was up as much as 2.6%. While that was happening, I’ve decided to close 1/3 of my holding CALLS at 68.63 and holding remainder, as I see that minor-term sentiment is stretched but more room to move in the intermediate-term. So now, I am holding remainder CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28 (closed 1/3 positions @ 68.63).
Citi has been pulling back since I’ve closed 1/3 of my positions @ 68.63 (see previous update). Citi is now retesting the GAP OPEN area, and it would be more bullish if the gap remains open; sometimes gap can get partially filled and leaving about 1/2 of the GAP OPEN, which also favors the buyers. So, I am wondering if we can see some support right at this 66.82 area next few days. If it continues to slide, I will be looking for a support at 66.30ish which is 6/29 low for a partial gap fill before moving higher. If the gap gets filled completely and come all the way down to 65.20ish, it’s not end of the world for the bulls but they will lose this gap-up bullish momentum and the minor-term trend momentum. ER is on this Friday pre-market, and I am planning on holding through all of my positions. I am holding CALLS since 60.53 & 61.28 (closed 1/3 positions @ 68.63).