Ok well Aug 7th I got in on that upper wick. This is what happens when you let your emotion come into play instead of following your technical analysis.
One of my rules: Wait until the stock closes above the resistance (with good looking candle) and put trigger above that close
Well I didnt wait, I got greedy so I jumped in and I had to pay the price by waiting on this thing over a WEEK!!! >:(
But looks like its turning around to my favor =) this is why putting stop where it belongs is very important.
Anyhow here are my proposal of why i think we will see $208 before end of the month.
1. 100 SMA (blue line) says = “I have been served as very strong resistance back in early June and now I am going to be served as very strong SUPPORT – remember the rules gang, ‘Old resistance becomes new support’
2. 10 EMA (green line) says = “I have been holding up $IBM last 4-5 days straight acting as recent support!”
3. Moving Averages Cross says = “This is where possibly major shift could be happening on $IBM! Possible start of new bullish trend!”
4. 20 EMA (purple/pink line) says = “on Aug 2nd I was served as support and now I am about to cross 100 SMA (blue line) which suggests bullish momentum is building”
Talking about momentum, let’s look at my Strength/Momentum INDICATORS
Parabolics = You could say it is getting close to flip to the bearish side.. well not so fast. If you can look at the chart, back in mid February of this year, you can see that we did flip to the bearish side for a week or so (resting period / consolidation period) and then it flipped back to the bullish side and continued bullish for about a month. And possibly that’s what we could see.
DMI – Bullish
ADX (I love this indicator to see the momentum of the stock) – We are JUST NOW Building that momentum as you an see on ADX. I mean we’ve been in this bullish trend for a while now but yet ADX was never turned up until just recently… This is great indication that we are starting to see some momentum building on this trend. If you look at the past data on ADX, its that 20 level where we need to break to skyrocket this thing.
Fast Stoch – Turning back to bullish side.
**There you have it guys. I will update more this coming week. Something to watch out is that all three indexes are at its MAJOR PIVOT. We do not have reversal signal so nothing to worry about but something to be cautious**
8/22 Wednesday – Looks Bearish -_-;;
STOCH, RSI, MACD looks bearish at the moment…
Only savior for me is 100 SMA! 100 SMA has been just great resistance and support for $IBM as you can see.
So we traded just right up to 100 SMA today and sitting on it.. and we could possibly find some support there.
But it does look like we are forming a Three Black Crows which means we might have another huge bearish day tomorrow.
My stop is still the same and I might get stopped out tomorrow.. Well I will update tomorrow.
8/23 Thursday – Got stopped out
Yup just like I anticipated yesterday. Three Black Crows and I got stopped out. This one is a bummer.. had a great trade set up its just unfortunate that the market is rolling over hard..