6/15 Friday Mid-Day
As you can see last Aug, Sep, Oct we traded all around that uptrend/Fan lines which its from March 2009.
VERY VERY important line. That uptrend line has been sustaining this whole move! its probably the most important line to see where the market is going.
So last time we retraced to this line, it traded all around it for about 3 months and bounced. And my forecast is that’s what going to happen at least for a little while.
Few days of bullish run and we are right about 12800 resistance level. if we break that 13300 is our next target but i believe we probably going test it and see if that resistance is really going to hold. that resistance is MAJOR RESISTANCE as you can see it was tested May June July of 2011 PEAKS. so make sure to watch out for those. If you are in bullish trades, TIGHTENED your stops or if it slows down, I would close it out all together.
6/18 Monday Late Morning Update
Slowing down this morning, testing 12762 resistance. we had some great volume last Friday to consider.
Are we going bullish? well let’s look at the Fibonocci analysis. As you can see in that Blue BOX. That’s the Retracement Zone measuring 13300 and 12100. There are some possibility market could roll over unless we break that Fib Zone. This morning we are definitely testing that resistance.
Also 100SMA is giving us some resistance there. STOCH is getting into oversold territority and RSI as well but MACD is trying to cross that 20line and has lot of rooms to go up suggesting bullishness.
12850 is probably the important price point, if we can close above that level, we could see 13300 again.
6/19 Tuesday Morning: Fib Retracement Box is BREAKING!
Looks GREAT so far! I really want DOW to close above that BLUE BOX (Fib Retracement Zone) and if it does, we are officially going bullish and the direction has been changed at least until 13300!
6/19 Tuesday: After Close
So what happened to the move? it looks like bears came back and took about 40% of the move. Well 100SMA working as resistance as we have anticipated on our previous post.
This is always like clock work, it will test and see if we have enough fuel to push trough.. Its not a reversal sign so not to panic yet. Let’s look at the charts
Isn’t it ironic that we traded down to exactly Fibonnacci 38.2% retracement level. Like I said in the previous post, we have to CLOSE ABOVE that RESTRACEMENT BOX to go bullish unless that happens, we could roll over. We are not yet at reversal sign so its not to panic but to be cautious. Tomorrow we might have more definitive sign whether if the market is going to roll over or continue bullish.
For now hang tight and lets hope to close above that Fib. Retracement Box tomorrow and that same price point is blocked by 100SMA as resistance. So it is crucial price point to watch out for.
6/20 Wed Late Afternoon: Bearish Harami @ Fib. 38.2%
Bearish Harami isn’t STRONG reversal but its a early reversal signification. All in all, WE MUST BREAK THAT FIB ZONE BOX or we aint going bullish and BULLISH trend is still in effect