Last Update: 4.10.13
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Related Articles
Article from 9.28.12 – “10 Reasons of Why I am Extremely Bearish on $AAPL”
Article from 12.15.12 – “Why I Believe $AAPL is Headed $360”
Article from 1.1.13 – “Short-term Bullish Trade Idea Gone Rogue $AAPL”
Article from 2.12.13 – “Why I Entered Bearish Today on $AAPL” (Part 1)
Article from 3.27.13 – “Watch That 50! (ema)”
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3.27.13 Wednesday
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Entered Bearish (Puts) At Open @ $456.57
50EMA resistance, Doji right on it, gap down today, that was enough reasons for me to jump in at open.
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3.28.13 Thursday
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Added More This Morning @ $450.76
Recent uptrend move was not backed back volume thus volume was not confirming the trend. Once the gap was down yesterday, the momentum has started to shift.
After Close
Next level of support: $437-$432 ( possible inverted Head and Shoulders with right shoulder support). Selling volume is increasing last three days.
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4.1.13 Monday
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Closed 1/2 of My Bearish (Puts) Positions @ $436.83
(Last four candles what I call, “Acid Rain” = Another bearish candle after a Three Black Crows)
Possible gap fill at $432.96 today but I am expecting some kind of pull back to next 2-3 days (possibly to test that 10/20EMAs) before continuing another bearish run.
When Parabolics Flip
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4.2.13 Tuesday
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Old Support New Resistance
Still Holding Rest of My Puts
Volume definitely did come in but looks like bears snatched this one from the bulls. I won’t be surprised to see some sideways movement next few days before another dive and in that process (sideways movement), we might even get close to $437 vicinity again.
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4.3.13 Wednesday
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Added More Puts @ $436.86
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4.4.13 Thursday
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Added More (Puts) at Open This Morning @ $432.61
Due to low volume bear flag breakout today, not expecting a big move tomorrow.
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4.5.13 Friday
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Holding Rest of My Bearish Positions
We did gap down this morning but didn’t have enough juice to break $420 support which is a major pivot (from 2011 September and October). This pivot level must be broken before finding another bearish momentum. I am thinking we might get up to about $428 area on Monday (to fill that gap) and on Tuesday, the bearish run could resume and break $420. But then again that’s just my biased opinion.
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4.10.13 Wednesday
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All Closed Out @ $433.43
Hi Kim, what did you see the volume traded such lower with its price drop? what it could mean on further move? Thanks:)
followkim well it could mean many things.. first we can see that buyers are not there at 50EMA so stocks falling without much volume which means stops are getting triggered. 2nd the primary trend is still bearish which means the big tide the wave is heading south so even with the low volume, it is falling hard because once you are in a ocean and if you are just floating around (without swimming), that oceans tide will take you into that direction where the tide is moving, in this case, the tide is moving south.
followkim at the end of the day, we do have increasing volume (last three days) which means selling pressure is increasing
I expect a support on the 20 day SMA on next week and will make a reverse head and shoulders pattern. over the three correction sessions the volumes decreased about 25-30% which mean there was no institutions dumping after the resistance of 50 SMA. I guess it will go up soon and will breakout the SMA 50…
whew, glad i held on to my puts.
it was far enough out to withstand the buying on monday. if it closed above 50ema, i would have been out and reversed my position.
I’m hoping for apple to be down on monday and start taking some off profits just in case it is that inverse head and shoulders.
but doesn’t the right shoulder have to be shallower than the left? we pretty much are near the left shoulder right now. plus the neckline seems crooked. if it closes below 438 then we might be resuming the downward trend and break into new lows. $400 anyone? if it does, could be that nothing will break the trend except in April when they report earnings. We could see that 360 bottom by then. I guess we will need to wait and see where this goes next week first. People were moving out of apple and into Google but now we might see a fresh group of people selling, ones that see the market hitting fresh highs and seeing themselves missing out by holding onto apple. I noticed that apple is moving invert to the market. If i saw market hitting fresh historic highs every day while i’m losing money by holding apple (with bad news of weak sales coming out almost everyday), I would be frustrated too and worried about what my clients would think.
I got your points by watching your video analysis today. I like it a lot and admired on you in many ways……that is very good analysis on $AAPL …..will keep following and learning from you…..also wait to buy your book at the future…really….Happy Easter.
Kay,
You’ve been saying ticking bomb on spy when would u short it? Thx.
drerichu when the time is right
Kay, it hit the same top level ($437?) as yesterday only to come back down.
I was hoping it would hit $360 BEFORE earnings but now it’s looking like earnings is what might take it down. We cold hit new lows short term and then earnings could finish it. After earnings, new products announcements could be the reason why it holds and bounces back from $360. Volume looking very weak today too. Especially after the big move up this morning. I’m still hold to some of my puts. I started taking a little off the table Friday and Monday. Now looking to add. Good luck.
Facebook android event now happening. let’s see if this will hurt iphone sales or not.
Ended down today. Jobs report tomorrow before market open. Initial claims already looked bad. That could really do it.
Man! Breaking that $420 is a tough one! What will it take?
Hmmm….nice trade im still holding puts as well…but I do feel like the easy money was from 465-420 as this happened very fast so option decay doesn’t really occur. Anyways… do you still see apple hitting 400 before the earnings report or just screw everyone up and down and than drop $40 when it reports? Thanks…gj as always!
Killerfunpizza1 I am seeing 400 before the ER yes~
I am new to options trading and Im wondering at what strike price did you buy the puts, and at what expiration. I would really appreciate it if you provided me with one trade so I can understand. thank you very much.
aleisaab it varies from 465, 455, 435 April puts, they were strategically placed according to my risk/reward ratio and when I got into the position. hope that helps.