Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater (the world’s largest hedge fund) is negative YTD while the market is up +30% since the late Dec lows and +20% YTD.
He has been calling for 1987-style market crash openly/publicly since 2015 (I even made a video for my members late last year mentioning about this, “Why The “Experts” Are Wrong”).
I had some members worrying about Ray Dalio’s call suggesting that I check out Ray’s call throughout last several years.
Well, my analysis told me otherwise so I’ve been ignoring his call.
And because of that, I was able to achieve +60% gain in 2017.
If I was fearful of what he said and what other “experts” were saying, I wouldn’t have achieved that in 2017 and this year in 2019 (so far I’m up +60% in 2019).
It looks like Ray thought that December decline was the start of a major crash like 1987 as the article writes, “suggesting it went into the new year expecting the worst just as markets began to recover.”
This means, he unloaded his positions at the lows after taking a big loss; I did the opposite, I accumulated.
Here is a perspective of his call:
- In 2015, he called for 1987-style crash which is -45% crash
- Since 2015 lows to 2018 peak, market gained +65%
So, think about this, while he was waiting for -45% crash market rose +65%.
If you also account for missed-opportunity cost, that’s a big miss.
Also this year, he has missed +30% run on the S&P since the late Dec lows.
I am not knocking Ray as what he has done in the past and his performance in the past (I’ve read and have many of his books).
But, he has been wrong over 4 years, and it wasn’t a small miss but a HUGE miss that cost him and his investors dearly.
