S&P 500 is now up almost +18% since the December low.
What a spectacular move it has been in just over a month; most traders did not expect a move like this and missed out on this 18% run.
Well, the uptrend is inaugurated with proper higher-low (see the green arrows). And we don’t have that yet.
It’s going to come, but the question is, when.
Here this week? Or next week? or month from now?
These are the tough questions to answer.
What I can say is that the odds are starting to catch up against the bulls here.
I still do think that we can continue to grind higher, but I think the pullback is lingering around; I am thinking about 5% decline; and I still do NOT believe that we are going to see the retest of the December low.
Let’s check out this weekly-chart below, and analyze it.
S&P 500 ETF – SPY Weekly Chart: 2009 – Present
The moving average (45-SMA Setting at “High”) is specially created to accommodate historical fluctuations as you can see my arrow annotations.
The moving average which has been a strong support in early 2018 could potentially be served as new resistance here, as the price is tagging right on it today.
But keep in mind that, this is a weekly chart, so we could possibly see some up-and-down move all around this moving averages in the coming weeks.
I still think market could very well continue to grind higher to 280, 290 and possibly 300; But this is the level we may see some turbulence that could lead to little sharper decline.
