Last Update: 8/16/2018
4/19/2018
I actually think QQQ is going to lag and it will probably show relative weakness (compare to other indices) whenever we have a down day. But, in the intermediate to primary term, I do see a potential on QQQ after the dust settles. I’ve decided to enter CALLS on QQQ earlier today at 164.85. First, I want to see the “Gap” remains open for this minor-term buying pressure to continue and hold this 164ish level at least next several days. There is a downside gap 169-171 (from 3/19), which is probably going to act as pretty strong resistance when/if the buyers bring the price back up to that level (and I will deal with that when we get there). For now, there are still ton of bears (selling pressure) here lingering around to exploit any moment to crash this thing down – so I am prepared to battle the bears in this vicinity of 160-164 level. Let’s see how it plays out, more updates later.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
4/24/2018
Today we saw a pretty steep decline on QQQ as the relative weakness continues as Google (GOOGL) declined almost 5% today weighing down the index. With that, now, the sellers have filled the upside gap (from 4/10), but the small gap (from 4/9) is actually still open as of today. It may or may not be filled this week but it will be advantageous if the bulls can protect the last up-gap (small gap from 4/9) here. This is the time, where, you would probably hear A LOT about the proverbial bearish head and shoulders formation on the Qs calling for the “CRASH” – I think it’s going to be another ‘scare tactic‘ to keep the bulls out and the bears to be fully on board before marching higher (see my video on “Deception of the H&S Pattern“). As of today, I am holding full position – let’s see if the bulls can protect 157-155ish level. More updates later.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
5/7/2018
Since my last update (4/24 above), bulls protected the “gap open” area at 156ish and found buyers in that level (and this was a important level that’s why I highlighted on the last update). As the buyers protect the 156-level the bigger gap was open on the next trading day as the Qs gaped up to 161-level on 4/26–and I think that was a crucial gap for the bulls as that gap still remains open to this day and buyers found some confidence after that. This morning we had another gap-up which is currently open, but we are seating just below that horizontal-resistance (red) at 166ish so this is the level to watch this week. If the price slides in the next few days, we want to see 163-162 level to hold for the minor-term bullish-momentum to stay alive, but its pretty definitive that bulls want to see the horizontal-resistance (166ish) broken to the upside as the bulls are eyeing on to fill down downside-gap at 171 which was open on 3/19.
I am still holding full CALL-position since 164.85 – let’s see how it plays out. More updates later.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
5/22/2018
On the last update (above), we talked about how the buyers wanted to clear above the prior resistance (red horizontal)–the bulls were successful clearing above the resistance and now consolidating here about 2 weeks above the prior resistance potentially becoming a new support (see blue arrows) while forming a “Bull Flag.” In it’s structure, this formation, is, indeed, a bullish continuation pattern. I’d say, given the current market sentiment and the recent price behavior, we have 60% chance breaking out to the upside and 40% chance breaking to the downside. For a full confirmation of this “Bull Flag,” we would want to see the price clearing above 170.00 and holding above it; if we can do that, we will see a new all-time high in no time. So, the current battle ground for the bulls is 164-165 level to protect if the bulls want to see this “Bull Flag” playing out. I am holding full CALL-position since 164.85, more updates later.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
6/4/2018
Well, sometimes, the technical levels and patterns play out just perfectly as to this current price action we’ve seen since my last update.
So this is what happened:
- Prior resistance acting as new support (arrows and red horizontal line)
- Bull flag pattern formed right above that potential new support
- And it played out perfectly as it cleared 171 to confirm the bull flag
So now, the obvious resistance is the all-time high resistance at 175. The dreams of that head and shoulder reversal from the bears is now crumpled and flopped as always. As of today I am holding all of my CALLS since 164.85, more updates later.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
6/18/2018
I have to say this trade has been pretty easy to manage since May; I almost forgot about it–not because I am careless because I tend to forget the position that’s working well, basically I’m just letting it run. But, by no means, it was not easy when I first entered with CALLS back in April 19th (see my first few updates) with some shenanigans. But with little bit of discipline and patience, it’s playing out just as I was thinking it would. NASDAQ has been the leader and still leading the market today behind the Russell 2000. QQQ has cultivated new all-time high despite the fact that the bears are still calling for the TECH CRASH like 2000 (keep in mind they’ve been saying the same thing since 2014). “20EMA” is definitely a moving-average to watch as it is coinciding with that 173-level which is the prior all-time high from 3/13/18. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see if it dips lower to 172-171 just so the market could take out short-term traders stops (remember: chasers always get burned).
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
6/26/2018
As soon as I see a pullback like this, first thing I do is, I scrutinize the chart to see if this is a good level for me to buy the dip. Well, not quiet yet for me today. We are currently seeing a slow down here at the rising “50EMA” which is coinciding with the prior resistance potentially retesting as new support. The level I am actually looking at, to buy more, is the second support level at 166-165ish level. Obviously we are still in a uptrend, which I believe after the dust settles, it’s going to make another run higher–but the question is, would it pullback in little deeper to maybe 165ish before running back up. I think this is the time to just let it be and see how it plays out in the next several days. As of today, I am holding all of my CALLS since 164.85.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
7/12/2018
Unlike my DIA CALLS, QQQ has been flying. Actually, 168-167 was the level I was looking to add more but I guess we are going to find support at “50EMA” so I wasn’t able to add more. Making new all-time highs with higher lows in tact isn’t really a bearish price-action. I think many people are shocked to see how the large techs can keep moving higher like this–well, I am shocked as well. But, in the market, un-thinkables do happen and that’s why you want to always respect the trend and give the benefit of the doubt to the buyers when the trend is strong (this is why I entered CALLS on QQQ that this might happen). Another new all-time high today, and I am still holding full position here today.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
7/25/2018
To be honest, QQQ has been a pretty easy trade to hold (since it took off in May)–but I wasn’t able to add to my position as it didn’t give me steeper dips for me to buy. Much to many people’s surprise that QQQ couldn’t perform (due to extended levels of FANG stocks), it is, once again, leading the entire market crushing the bears in this battle. No one knows where the top is and I would’ve missed out if I got sucked into that fear like everyone else. We are extended in the minor-term, but I think it could move higher looking at things in the intermediate-term. 177-176is level is to hold should the price decline. I am targeting 187-190 before I unload some positions – let’s see how it plays out. I am holding full position as of today.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
8/3/2018
It’s been almost 4 months since I’ve first engaged with CALLS back in April 19th at 164.85. As I am still holding full position today QQQ is continuing to stay above the rising “50EMA” as you can see in the chart below. I cannot guarantee that it won’t fall below the 50EMA, but I would have to continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the buyers as the trend is still higher–clearly the bulls are winning this battle in the intermediate term. For me to add to this position, I am watching 170-168ish level should the price decline in the next week or so, if not, I will continue to hold my positions with the target price of 190-192 before unloading about 1/3. More updates later.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
8/9/2018
QQQ grind-ed higher filling the gap at 182.70ish (see “Gap filled”). Typically when the gap gets filled it does act as instance resistance, plus, this is the level many short-term bears will be calling it a ‘double top’ with their inevitable and fearful heart. So we may see little shake out at this level just so that the market can entertain the idea. The worst case scenario (in the minor-term term) might be that we break below this rising “50EMA” create bigger panic, and if that happens you know I will be waiting to buy that ‘fear.’ So, for now, let’s see how it deals with this level. I am holding full CALL-position as of today.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
8/16/2018
Look at that, perfectly assimilated rising-channel. Everyone likes to talk about it and everyone likes to tweet about it and everyone think they know exactly what is going to do. And that’s exactly what the market expects you to think–that you figured it out based on this pattern. As soon as we see a orderly pattern like this, more often than not, you will see some shenanigans: It means, it may break down to take everyone’s stop before going higher or we may break higher luring in the chasers (thinking that’s its the breakout) before collapsing right back in. Fun times ahead. Since my last update, we did see a pull back after filling the gap at 182.50ish, and now we are retesting the rising-channel support. If we break below this support, next support is at 175ish. I am still targeting about 190s as my next target before unloading some; and to add more, I am thinking around 170-171ish as I am still holding full CALL-position. More updates later.
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• ENTRY: 164.85 •
SPY: “Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful (FOLLOW UP)“
