MAKE OR BREAK
Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday (5/1) after hours – I am certainly interested in how the investors and traders are going to react as the stock is now trading at a pivotal level here. And the stock has been stalling at 180ish level last several months as the buyers are starting take some profits here (which is no surprise) as it had almost 100% run since the June of 2016 as it peaked at 183ish in March this year.
This rising-50SMA, you see on the chart below, is a important moving average to keep an eye on because it has been acting as strong pivot as it has been served as strong resistance and strong support since late 2015 (as I like to say, “it has a strong resume.”) This is the level I will be watching after the ER and see if we can stay above this level or break below – make or break level here.
Weekly Chart with 50SMA
CORRECTION OR CONTINUATION
I wouldn’t overreact looking at this chart extrapolating-being overly bearish. It’s hard to tell as of today as it may consolidate before resuming back up or we may finally see another steep corrections – that’s why I think the upcoming ER is going to be very important as the tension is starting build up here.
So, what I am looking for is; if the stock declines significantly after the ER (not necessary on that day, but in the next 1-2 weeks after the ER) I will be looking for an entry to go long at around 140 – 135 vicinity. However, if the stock gaps up or holds this level, I would have to scrutinize it’s price behavior to make sure we are seeing constructive movement that could get back us to new all-time high. What’s most important is, in the process of finding healthy state again for AAPL, we need to see the bearish divergence (chart below in yellow boxes) being nullified and it returns to a healthy state (currently not). As you can see the oscillator is still declining making new lower lows while the stock is trying to stay a float.
Yes, this is a heavy look. That’s why the reaction on this Tuesday (and week or two after) will be important.
Weekly Chart with MACD
I have no position on AAPL as of today
2 thoughts on “AAPL: What I’m Looking For After The ER”
Hi kay nice watch there. Just got a question on your stock picking. Is it based solely on technical or you have some fundamental elements in your screening process? I trust you have good picks many times that’s why Im asking. Thanks!
its 80/20 – 80% technical, but it has to make sense for me on the fundamental side especially if I am going to hold things much longer term such as my TWTR and INTC positions.