JOURNAL: C Calls – PART 1

Last Update: 4/25/2017

3/1/2017

I’ve actually been waiting for C to retest 57.50-pivot to buy that dip, well, that didn’t happen; and C ended up gaping above the falling-resistance this morning as you can see in the above chart.  As I was examining to ascertain the veracity of this big gap-up in the broad market, I had to move quickly as either it could be a gap-&-go scenario or a gap-&-fade.  I had to make a quick judgement call early in the morning because it may advance too much before I can enter; so I did, made a call that this situation has higher probability of being a gap-&-go scenario.  So I pulled the trigger here earlier this morning @ 61.28 engaging with call options on C.  My thought was, as long as we stay above the 61.19 (where it gaped open) area, minor-term sentiment still can remain bullish using the gap-up as a ‘breakaway gap.’  Well, C did close with +2.89% for the day with 61.54 print at close.  We may retest 61.19 area in the next few days, so that is the level I will be watching remainder of this week.  More updates later.

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3/7/2017

The Financial Sector (XLF) was down today -0.28% while Citigroup is showing a relative strength here compare to other banks with +0.36% gain today. We have several things going on in this chart above:

1. Spinning Top candle has formed which look very similar to 2/24 candle (blue circle)
2. Selling pressure is slowing down today right on that rising-pivot line (blue dotted) similar to 2/24
3. 20EMA has been a support back in 2/24, and currently finding some support there today

If we can able to hold the coinciding-levels this week, I think we may able to see a pop here (if we lose this level, 50EMA to watch next).  Let’s see how it plays out.  I am still holding my full call-positions since 61.28.

3/16/2017

Citi still holding above “20EMA” moving average, while cultivating minor-term higher lows as you can see in the chart above.  We do have bullish Harami candle pattern (today’s spinning top candle is at near the center of engulfing candle from yesterday) that needs to be confirmed by closing above the yesterday’s high — 61.70.  Minor-term ‘benefit of the doubt’ goes to the buyers as long as we stay above the “20EMA,” and breakout well above the 61.70-level.  Let’s see if we can see a breakout in the next several days here; I am still holding my full call-positions since 61.28.

3/28/2017

Since my previous update, Citigroup came down pretty hard last week after losing that “20EMA (from the previous update).”  I held through my positions thinking we may see a bounce in 58-56 vicinity as we have two supports (red horizontal) and the “100SMA” residing in that vicinity (as I was anticipating a strong bounce on the overall market – read my latest SPY article). It was very rocky late last week, but it seems to find strong support yesterday and the follow-through today.  Next resistance I see is the falling resistance (blue dotted) at around 60ish which is the level to watch this week.  I am actually glad that Citi didn’t come all the way down to the bottom level of a support at 55ish but stopped short at around 57ish before bouncing, which makes the intermediate-term higher low to be in effect (meaning, if we make new highs above 62ish, this was, indeed, that intermediate-term higher low before printing higher high above the 62ish).  As of today I am still holding full call-positions since 61.28.

4/12/2017

Since my last update, Citi is back down to 58ish support level (horizontal red) which is coinciding with rising “100SMA.” I think this level is going to a pivotal level next few trading sessions.  Yesterday we did throw a Hammer candle but no follow through to the upside today, instead,  red engulfing candle (engulfing yesterday’s green body) today.  So going into tomorrow, minor-term sentiment is still bearish as Citi investors contemplate how the buyers/sellers are going to deal with this 58ish level.  Let’s see how it plays out as I am still patiently holding my full call-positions since 61.28.

4/25/2017

15-trading days (since 3/31) of downturn loss has been mostly recovered with just two days of up-move here, which is pretty incredible.  Good news is, two gaps are still open as of today and the price is staying slightly above the falling-downtrend resistance (blue dotted) as of today.  What I like to see is, the price-action to hold this 60.00-gap-open-level next few days to climb higher in the remainder of this week, but I’m open to a possibility that it could pullback to fill today’s gap at 59.46 (when the gap doesn’t get filled right away, it illuminates more bullish sentiment as a ‘jump start’).  My long-term calls are still in the red as of today as I am still holding full positions since 61.28.

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