Kay Kim's Private Club Since 2012
Related Analysis: “The Matrix Bulls“
SPY Daily
S&P 500 is breaking out as we are now clearing well-above the recent resistance (blue dotted). As long as this market stays above “20EMA” benefit-of-the-doubt goes to the buyers in the minor-term.
Why keeps on moving higher without steeper corrections?
Because everyone is looking for that “corrections” who have missed out the move since the early November. Most traders who left behind, is either shorting and/or waiting for this market to pullback about 5%, that’s precisely why this market isn’t correcting.
This market knows how to fool the majority.
We didn’t crash in 2016, because everyone was looking for the crash. We are not getting steeper corrections now, because everyone is looking for one. We will finally see a 5-8% correction, when, finally, majority of the people are tired of waiting and start to buy–brutal place, I know, but that’s the market we are dealing with everyday.
Where do we go from here?
I think we may see a bullish run until beginning of the summer (of course with ups-and-downs); check out my previous article on the potential target here.
Hi Kim,
Great post, and thank you for your thoughts. If you aren’t in SPY right now (I remember you closed out your position some weeks ago), when would you enter? I think Thursday’s low would have been good (228.30 or so), but I think that previous resistance (229.60’s) is now support?
Also, regarding your thinking of rallying into beginning of summer, I want to share this link with you: http://www.thestockwhisperer.com/Blog/February-2017/Dark-Pool-Prints-and-Seasonal-Patterns
Basically, Stephanie is looking at a couple of seasonality charts to get a sense of market moves for the year. Of course, she isn’t into predicting either, and she says so in the post. But your post here reminded me of hers because one of the charts (years ending in “7”) shows what you are suggesting as well. What are your thoughts on her post, and in any case, how would you interpret the seasonality charts she is writing about?
Hi Steve,
Though I am not long on SPY, I am long on many equities including EBAY INTC BSX so I am content to see this breakout. I probably wouldn’t go long on SPY on any of these levels at this point, but as long as SPY illuminate bullish enviornment, I can find stocks that I can go long–for ex. I did add more INTC calls today.
SPY hasn’t even touched 50EMA since Trump election, so for me to go long, I want to see SPY retesting at least 50EMA.
I quickly glanced at her post, and I do think seasonality will play the role. If my theory is right on SPY as it continues to move higher in the next 2-3 months, then I really think that seasonality will take in effect, and we may see 5% corrections at that time in the beginning of the summer.
This was right on the MONEY!! Thanks Kay
Thanks Greg