[divider]
1.28.14 Tuesday
[divider]
According to the chart 1928-1929, possibly another run-up before the fall.
[divider]
OR
[divider]
Form H&S reversal here and straight up “tankage”.
[divider]
Related Articles
11.12.13 “Tom DeMark vs Laszlo Birinyi vs Tom McClellan $DJIA“
01.28.14 “One Last Hope $IWM $SPY“
4 thoughts on “$DJIA Dé·Jà Vu”
Nice Analysis. Thanks Kay
Kay, i have been studying the market ever since the recession of 2008. I also looked at the great depression. It is crazy how close they are. Even with world events such as fast global expansion, bubble, return to normal, fall back down.
There was the industrial revolution at the time and we are having our own technological revolution now. Gates, Jobs, Zuckerberg, Bezos, and Musk are the new Carnegie, Rockefeller, Vanderbuilt, Edison, and Ford. Even the new social programs are the same as back then.
And now you compare charts from that era to now.
If you look at the chart for a typical bubble, we are not done yet, going down. We should hit new lows. Yes, lower that 2009. How is it possible to get there? A double dip recession. But how can we go lower than last time? China was still in growth mode. But not anymore. Obamacare kicks in. And no more printing money by the Fed by the end of the year.
We have enough data (charts) to see enough of the similarities now. There was no bounce on the DOW as we have broken through support levels. So we could see lower levels. I guess we will have to wait until the jobs numbers on Friday. But with the economy not fully healed and the Fed taking away the fruit punch, how will this economy stand without real job creation.
I’m bracing for the worst. It might not happen but I have to keep an open mind that it might.
The charts don’t look good, history is not in our favor, and now the economic data is looking poor. There were not great last year either but earnings were great and that’s why market kept going higher thinking we were going to have a full recovery. The earnings are great because companies cut to the bone. layoffs and low wages, and technology has made the numbers look good. But now they can’t cut anymore so we are seeing some companies with bad numbers. I thought bad retail meant great amazon.com but it didn’t happen. That’s the nail in the coffin. The good news is that we swing trade. We make money as long as stocks go up OR down. Market, news, CNBC and analysts are still in denial. They keep shrugging off bad numbers. Blaming it on the weather, etc. Bad weather should have made amazon.com more appealing to shop. But their guidance didn’t show that.
Normally this would just be my opinion but like I said, I have studied bubbles and the Great Depression and now opinion has become fact as charts are now starting to show. The only reason I posted this here is because I saw your 1928-1929 charts. Only adds to my conviction of where we are headed.
Once again, I hope it doesn’t happen but the charts are telling the story, not me.
I wish everyone the best.
Also, the market did rocket back to reach new highs in 1929 only to hit new lows soon after. Comparing that to what is happening now as stocks hit new highs last year even though the job market was poor. Didn’t real make sense. But it’s just another thing we can see being eerily similar.
Zex_M19 good thoughts Zex. I do agree with you on that and I do feel that we may get much steeper decline..