[Click 2 Enlarge]
[Step 1]
We must stay above this pivot level of $510ish. Currently we are sandwiched between $510-$505 pivot level but I really think if we close below this level, I think $AAPL is going to lose almost all of its momentum that it has built last several months. Next level of supports are $480 and $450 and $AAPL really can’t afford that right now (mainly because $AAPL wants to keep this bullish momentum going). Months of accumulation could be in jeopardy and fear from investors and traders will increase so I really think this ($510ish) is the level to be protected and hold if we want to see any immediate recovering action.
[Step 2]
We are now back below 100SMA. This in itself is a big problem because as you can see how well it has been served as strong pivot-level last several occasions (5/7/13, 5/31/13, 7/18/13, 9/17/13 – see arrows). And because of this, the presence of 100SMA is definitely threatening. Now that we are below 100SMA, it could act as strong resistance and that’s the problem. We must reclaim 100SMA to the upside which means closing well above 100SMA ($522ish), if not, 100SMA will reject price and $AAPL could head much lower.
[Step 3]
$540 pivot. This is it. We get above $540, I think the threat (from the bears) is pretty much gone at this point but that double top ($570 resistance) is still lingering around and could still trying to push the price lower. But at this level, $AAPL would find some good momentum and filling most of it’s earnings gap-down. We would need to hold above this level and maybe consolidate for few weeks to build some base. However, if we get rejected from this point, we will be forming H&S bearish reversal and $AAPL is going “bye bye”.
[Final Step]
As I have mentioned in Step 1, 2 & 3, there are so many threatening variables because of today’s big gap down. It won’t be an easy tasks also because we are seeing potential correctional move happening in the broad market. But if we manage to complete all the steps, next final step would be… Closing above $570 to completely nullify that double top presence and demolishing bear’s dream. If we see these things happening here, I could see $AAPL seeing $700 by end of the year. If not, I think $AAPL is going to have hard time and possibly moving sideways for years to come (like $MSFT since 2001 – present).
Scary 🙂
Looks like apple trying to fill that gap Kay.
It just hit 515 today. The high after earnings was 515. It needs to go past that to hit 530.
Whenever the gap gets filled, I think it retests the 500 again.
Zex_M19 yea the problem is we might be getting up there to make another LOWER HIGH at around $530 (Gap fill)
today it closed at 529:-)…..I think 98% long investors are expecting AAPL at 700….only 2% are bearish…..how stock can go up to give profit to 98%…..it looks like going to give more pain….
hypT yea im still very doubtful that its going straight up from here.. still tough environment here
This is not unlike the previous Sept selloff. Apple could settle into something like a bull flag here to build strength then bust through 570 resistance as a possibility. I guess you can say both directions is pain now lol, I hate these kind of moves, a higher low may be a lot higher then we want when it comes to Apple.
Zex_M19 Looks like the gap got filled. The day before earnings, aapl was trading at 545 low. So we are now back to where we were before the big drop. With the buyback support at $500, i think now investors are asking “where do we go from here”. Unless some news comes out, I think we just drift around these levels. Don’t see how the stock would just go higher or lower without any catalyst.
Zex_M19 Maybe even a little pull back from these levels.
Zex_M19 yea this thing isn’t gonna go straight up so.. probably putting in HIGHER LOW sometime next few weeks would be a good thing or even consolidation and build some base above $530ish
2kaykim Zex_M19agree. 530 is near the 100 SMA too so that would be a good level to put a floor in on a slight pullback.
whatever aapl does, it better go higher or that 100sma will catch up and cross over the 200. twice it has happened and was a deathblow both times.
revisiting $500 again would not be good.
Zex_M19 Right.. we would want to stay above $530ish where all the moving averages crossing including 50EMA..
Kay, I’m looking at the weekly and we are at the top of the bearish trend since it hit 570 back in December. Today is key on the daily chart. News of Apple and Tesla has gotten both stocks excited but I have to see how they finish today. The move up from 500 was a momentum move due to aapl buyback. The question is, when does that momentum end? And when it does, where does it go from there? Apple has broken out of the weekly resistances each time so far since it bottomed below $400 to make new highs. So unless that trend breaks, it’s looking bullish overall. We are still OK if we head back down. But we can’t make new lows on the weekly chart. With strong apple buyback at $500, doubt we break it. Can you do a weekly chart analysis apple? I can’t exactly where the last floor was. Either near the low $500s (510-515?) or near 465. If we don’t make new highs and just go horizontal, I think that’s bad too. Even though apple is buying back their stock, they already used up most of the amount allocated to it. That’s how much selling was going on. But if it breaks out and closes this Friday above 443 (breaks out of the bearish weekly trend), we could see this running to $590-$600. Market almost back to its highs now too. We should see it test it this week. So either double top or new highs in the indexes could carry apple too.
2kaykim Zex_M19aapl looking terrible. trying to stay above that 530 you mentioned. If it fails then we could see a retest of $500 and get another bounce from the buyback.
aapl looks bad on the daily and the weekly.
Zex_M19 2kaykim yea it could challenge that $510-$520 gap from 2/7
2kaykim Zex_M19I spoke too soon, 530 broken. Looks like $510 next week.
Kay: Do you have any plan to buy Puts on AAPL anytime soon?
ryanvan no not anytime soon. I think its gonna consolidate for a while $540-$510 vicinity. ill think about shorting if we break the support of $490ish
Kay,
I am seeing old support now becoming new resistance.
Also seeing a new head and shoulders forming with a 515-520 neckline.
What are your thoughts?
Also looks like the right shoulder had less average volume than the left shoulder or head.
If it breaks the 515 support and continues below 495 then I think we can see this revisit the lows below 400. Probably stair stepping down. If they don’t come out with a new product soon or increase buyback, I can see this happening,
Zex_M19 nice chart. yea i wouldn’t even think about going long until it breaks resistance from 12/5, 1/15, 1/22, 2/18 peaks. Also now trading below major moving averages
Don’t know what will happen to AAPL in future but your analysis was absolutely correct point by point. It happened exactly as you explained…..:-)
hypT =) i think with NASDAQ weakness, it might be difficult for $AAPL to move much higher.. My guess it it might be in a range bound from $570 to $545ish until the market stabilize again
2kaykim hypT Stock spilt (7:1) in June and few new product launch may take apple to little higher (I know everyone is expecting this). In terms of percentage it is same but when you see AAPL is at 80$ (in June) then you get a feeling that it would be easier to go to 100 $ from 80$…100$ then means $700 now….but same is true for going 60$ from 80$….and then 60$ means $420 of now….that will be bad….lets see how it goes…
2kaykim hypT I agree with Kay. It would’ve been bullish if AAPL opened and closed above 570ish level today, but given today’s price action, it looks like it wouldn’t go above this level anytime soon.
ryanvan 2kaykim hypT Today it closed above 570 🙂 …. market did not support it because of global issues but somehow AAPL is moving up…
hypT ryanvan 2kaykim nice hopefully it continues… its just not for me