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Last Update: 12.8.13
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11.14.13 Thursday
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Weekly Chart 1
$AAPL loves to stair-step higher once the trend starts to develop and obviously we have seen the trend built and continue to build as this uptrend is still very well in tact. I would have to say as long as $505-$510 level holds as support, I do see higher prices looking at the bigger picture here.
Weekly Chart 2
Last 4 weeks, we’ve pretty much consolidated forming bull pennant pattern above the pivot area. This is a very good sign for buyers as these kind of consolidations usually results in upside breakout, especially, after we’ve found strong support with double bottom reversal several months back. As you can see, we are progressing to the upside and making higher lows. Trend is definitely well established and momentum is continue to be built to the upside.
$550, $570 (see the chart below), and $590 are the next three targets.
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Old Support New Resistance
Weekly Line Chart
Old support new resistance might be happening here at around $570 and it can become pretty significant resistance level. So must be on guard on this level if or when $AAPL get up to the price level. We must break above this level to get up to $590.
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12.8.13 Sunday
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High Volume Weekly Doji
Weekly Candle Chart
So here are few things to consider
- $570 pivot level
- High volume Doji on the weekly chart right on that $570 pivot
- High volume indicates, this Doji CAN be dangerous (could be Evening Star reversal (if follow through next week to the downside)
Here are few scenarios for bulls
- Make sure we do NOT close below lows of last week by end of this week with full bodied bearish candle (doji or spinning top should be ok)
- Consolidate here forming either bull flag or bull pennant
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Levels 2 Watch on Daily Chart
Daily Candle Chart (10EMA: Light Blue | 20EMA: Green)
Here are levels to watch for supports
- $550ish (10EMA) support
- $540ish (20EMA) support
I would wait until for a confirmation of a bounce for continuation but definitely not the level to short (unless day trading)
That $515ish bottom is holding. The channel has hit the bottom today.
ALso, we need to end the week around 525 in order for wedge to continue.
Looks like we can see wedge point tomorrow.
Something big about to happen to move apple up very soon.
Rumors of china mobile again today.
Zex_M19 yea possible double bottom here as we form hammer candle today. if we can get above $530, i think $550 can be seen quickly
Kay,
apple still in trading range. came off of that 515 level again. headed back to 530ish.
any dip this week, I will buy a few calls. Not going to break up or down unless major news. I am going to channel trade this until that happens.
Frustrating that it hasn’t moved outside of the channel but at least it follows the charts and can be traded.
Zex_M19 10/29, 11/14, and today’s high might be acting as resistance. if we don’t push higher, back down to $510ish~
Zex_M19 we pushed higher this morning negating that possible resistance. looks like it might wants to breakout to the upside
Kay, we could be seeing a real breakout here.
Above previous high.
Good volume.
News to go with the move (Strong iPhone 5S sales and speculation on iTV)
I hope we see $550 this friday. If not then maybe next Monday after strong weekend, black friday sales on those iPhones.
Article on Corning talking about “Stronger glass” for Apple. Could be for a TV….
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/money/business/2013/11/26/-corning-inc-apple-relationship-confirmed/3751877/
Kay,
looking at daily chart for last month, I see double top or inverted head and shoulders.
I am more likely to be bullish than bearish on apple.
Possible china mobile deal early December too, according to rumors (again. LOL!)
Nice move up today.
because of short week, I think this will pull back on Friday.
profit taking after a big move up.
then move to 550 on Monday after great weekend sales.
market closed tomorrow.
happy holidays everyone!
Zex_M19 nice gap up this morning and follow thru. i think its gonna close strong today as volume continues to pick up. yea u r probably right Friday and Monday slightly pull back would be healthy before another leg up
550 right on the dot, Kay.
Looking for a short term pullback now. Apple lagging behind market. Needs to catch up. I think we breakout of 550 in Dec.
My target price is 590-600 by Jan next year.
Good luck.
2kaykim Zex_M19 where do you see the pullback level? 550, 545? Is 545 too optimistic an entry level to hope for? We’re seeing today that it is coming close to 550 – maybe a retest of the opening price range from Friday (547-550) (and also tag the 5 day EMA before continuing higher) would provide a good entry for calls. Or do you think that if it comes down to 545, we should wait for lower prices?
keizer_soze 2kaykim Zex_M19 its tough to say after today’s high volume sell off. It seems that it went up with high emotion (greed) and came down today with high emotion (fear). I would watch 10EMA for possible retest or if we can have some kind of nullification process of today’s sell off candle
2kaykim sounds good – another thing to keep in mind is that AAPL is (still, even after today) outside of its daily bollinger bands. I find that boll bands are reliable in that the price likes to stay pretty close or inside of them, and that veering too far out (or too far away from the 8/10 EMA) causes a technical action to pull the price back closer, then probably continuing the trend.
Look like apple hit a double top. Touched near yesterday’s high, then pulled back.
Then it hit it again today (double top today) and pulled back. ceiling at around 563-565 ish.
I want to see where it goes from here. It needs to break through or we are headed back down at least for this week.
I would like to see a 15-20 point pullback from it’s peak and re-test that going back up next week.
Zex_M19 wow wutta move today despite of the market condition! We are right on that $570 resistance. If long, keep following that 5EMA~! otherwise best not to chase it up here
2kaykim Zex_M19 yes, saw the break out and I got in. will hold until 570. probably tomorrow morning. big news on china mobile deal. all but done. potential official announcement on Dec 18. I hate these rumors. missed a lot of the run up but still made some money. any dip below 570 between now and announcement is a good chance to get in. Apple probably sell during china mobile news since all priced in. market exhausted from buying stocks at their peaks. Market looking of cheap stocks that still have yet to move or lagging like apple and tesla. Tesla redeemed itself. Going back to previous levels before cars caught on fire.
2kaykim I’m looking at 52 week high. Tomorrow will be Dec 4. Last year on Dec 4, Apple closed at 576. I think that is where it will peak tomorrow.
52 week high!!!! Come on baby!
Kay, it hit 569 today. close enough. sold all calls.
The way it dropped this morning, I didn’t like it. I’ll stick with your call on 570.
Once it went green, I sold it. Will wait for real pull back now.
Whole market is down this week on profit taking before end of year and Fed talk this Friday.
Zex_M19 yea i think that $570 gonna act as pretty strong resistance and also with market crashing, safe to say possible retest 10EMA before going higher
Kay,
stock was over 570 so I was getting a bit worried but STILL was unable to finish above 570. Hit 52 week high. News of China Mobile deal done. I think it’s been priced in now.
After the big drop towards end of day today, it marched back up to hit that 570 again. it dropped right after hitting it.
We could be hanging around these levels until actual official news comes out of apple or at Dec 18 when China Mobile starts selling iPhones. (trading range)
I’m gonna buy calls on any big dips but buy puts at 570 or higher.
Zex_M19 still no bearish reversal signal yet though we had red outside day today. some short-term consolidation would be a good thing before continuing higher perhaps $590-$600
Good consolidation today. On a day when market is up huge.
Kay, I heard $600 and I believed it. Now you say $600 too.
I think $600 before end of year.
We march higher.
Official deal with China Mobile will do it. Dec 18? we shall see.
Zex_M19 post updated today with thoughts and levels to watch
Third black crow shot dead today.
Right at that 570 pivot point! The suspense is killing me!
Bought a few puts near that 570 level. Apple looking weak.
Zex_M19 i would like to see it come down to retest 10EMA or even 20EMA
Sold this morning. It hit near that 560 support we had last week. We could see this consolidating between 560 and 570 until we hear official news on the China Mobile deal. All these rumors of a done deal but yet no OFFICIAL word. China Mobile will roll out 4G next week so people assumed Apple was included. If there is no China Mobile deal with Apple next week, we could give back a lot of the gains. Maybe as far back as 535-540…in one day!
Kay,
I’ve noticed that apple in a tight range has been gravitating around 566. If you look at daily chart from last week and this week, it looks like a key pivot point. There are days when it would close there or open there. Definitely resistance at 570 and support at 560. WOW! very tight range. I wasn’t fast enough to by puts again this morning when it hit 570+. If I did, I would have done well for a quick trade as it has come back down. It actually hit 561 yesterday and 571 today. So that’s 566 +/- 5 exactly.
Really confirms that 566 pivot point. We are holding at another step. We could see this move next week depending on China Mobile deal or not. If no deal we break down and this could get ugly real fast. But if there is a deal then we see 590s.
That’s just my opinion.
Looks like we are sitting on another step (trading range). Back up to 570+ sometime this week. China Mobile deal is done. All priced in. Bought some calls this morning, will flip them for puts when this nears $570ish.
Could break out(or drop) end of year or early in Jan.
If this breaks out, I’m am seeing 595.
Good luck!
Wow. I had a tight stop loss and it got triggered. Quick dump today. uh well.
Zex_M19 still looks like drifting lower here but still right on that 10EMA. General market might be a big factor here. If market up this week, could help this stock if not aapl could go lower
Kay,
that 570 pivot point is too strong for Apple.
We hit it again earlier this week. Couldn’t break it.
Bought some puts yesterday and now sold it this morning for a quick gain.
I think Apple is done for now. China Mobile deal went through but noticed we never broke that 570-575 level (looks like it was priced in). It also did NOT participate in yesterday’s big rally.
No catalyst to see coming anytime soon.
We have to wait until Jan 2014 to see if this can break through. If it does, then we see that 590-600 level but if we don’t, we see the bubble pattern chart I sent you and we see new lows below $400.
They need to come out with a whole new product to see this higher. Like a TV or watch. Or insane earnings. But how many times did we see great earnings and then nothing happened to stock.
Here is the bubble chart…
http://positiveexpectedvalyou.blogspot.com/2012/11/growth-then-value.html
If you look at apple chart (linear, not log) over the very long term, you will see that it matches perfectly.
Zex_M19 yup i haven’t been trading $AAPL in a while now as I just can’t seem to find good entry for swing trade (week to a month) as it has been very sluggish after hitting that $570. Usually after huge gap ups, you want to see a follow thru right away but could not… its looking very complicated and we might get stuck here for a while range bound below $570 possibly consolidating before another move.
I know people are skeptical that apple could go that low but I see it as another microsoft right now. MSFT was stuck in the $30s since the dot com bubble crash. they paid out dividends and just updated their “bread N butter” OS and office software.
Apple is doing the same, just updating their hardware. Even if Apple comes out with new technology, so did MSFT but failed.
Not that Apple would have a failed product but anything they make will be copied quickly so they won’t be able to move the stock with it.
Just my opinion.
I see a sleight pull back until end of year and then we resume into a monster rally starting the new year.
That’s what happened last year and market is more bullish now than before.
Good luck.
2kaykimZex_M19I agree. Looks like we are stuck. If we do move up then I think that is the last leg up. I had a price target of $600 since it bottomed earlier this year believe it or not. Just seemed right but could see it reverse here too at 570. Looking at the chart, the 570 resistance is very strong. 590-600 was the first big resistance on the bounce (end of November 2012) since the drop from the top.
I think anything above the 550-600+ level is froth in this stock. anything higher is irrational exuberance.
Apple looking ugly.
Double topped at 570.
Haven’t seen a double top since it started it’s march back up.
Higher highs pattern broken for now.
If 540-545 support breaks, that will be very bad.
Zex_M19 we get confirmed double top, its gonna look very bad technically… below $530-$535ish would be confirmation of double top
2kaykimZex_M19Ok thanks. I will keep on eye out for those levels. If those fail then I am guessing the 515 support needs to hold.
Any update on your plan for trading AAPL?
ryanvan $AAPL not looking good with that double top threat. I havent touched it in a while now.. I might do an update sometime this week after seeing how its gonna deal with that 50EMA.
Apple no longer a growth stock. It’s a value stock.
I treat it like another Microsoft.
Google is now the prized growth stock with new products coming out.
The charts says it all.
Google climbing to new highs while Apple is down on a bullish day today.