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Last Update: 9.4.13

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Related Articles

08.17.13 “Warning Signal on $SPY (also covering $AAPL $GG) [VIDEO]“

08.21.13 “LIVE Mid-Week Update $SPY $AAPL $XLF $C $GG [VIDEO]”

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8.26.13 Monday

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[Hr Before Close] Entered Puts @ $166.97

This pivot level of $167 (red horizontal line) which we have been talking about for sometime (8/17/13 $SPY Warning Signal video) now that bulls must break above this level to continue higher and bears must protect this level to push this thing lower.   This is the “make or break” level as I like to call it.  I decided to enter puts at this level knowing that we have bearish divergence on MACD and also it would give me good risk/reward ratio at this level.  I’ve also noticed the volume was declining while the $SPY rose higher (suggesting not much buying pressure).

[After Close]

Last hour, sellers really came in and pushed this thing lower while the sellers really protected that pivotal level we’ve been talking about.  Next level of support is about $164 where 100SMA is residing and after that I think we are headed to $157-$158 vicinity.

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8.27.13 Tuesday

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[Open] Added More Puts @ $164.49

It gaped down big this morning and I’ve decided to add more puts just about 30mins after open as I was hoping that 8/21’s low will become resistance level as we initially gaped down below that level.

[After Close] Tanked

We’ve broken below the recent lows and now with establishment of lower highs (8/26), I can’t help to think that we are going much lower.  We did break below 100SMA Today but it could still act as support so I will be watching that this week.  My target price is still at around $158-$157.

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8.29.13 Thursday

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Bear Flagging

“Old support (green arrow) new resistance (red arrow)” going on here and just underneath that, we are forming a bear flag.  Bear flag will be confirmed once we break below $163.30ish.  I do think once we break below that level, we probably get down to $157-$158 level pretty quickly.   I am still holding full put positions and I am willing to holding through the labor day weekend as we might see the resolution to the downside early next week if not tomorrow.

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9.3.13 Tuesday

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20 & 50EMA Cross 2 Watch

I am still holding full bearish positions as today’s gap up ended with fade.  I am currently looking at 20EMA and 50EMA possibly crossing here (not yet fully crossed) which it shows us the pressure that is coming down.  Because we were not able to sustain the gap up today, I think the selling pressure remains.  11/6/12, with confirmed 20 & 50EMA death cross, we saw 2 weeks of bearish correction.  Today, 20 & 50EMAs have been united but not yet crossed but I think the longer bulls take their time to push this thing higher, more the momentum bears are going to accumulate before flushing it lower.  I did not draw trend lines on this chart because if you look at your $SPX chart, you will soon find out the uptrend line is broken to the downside and now bear flagging (much different picture than $SPY).  I think, high probability that more downside will come tomorrow.

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9.4.13 Wednesday

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[Before Close] All Positions Closed with Loss @ $165.89

I felt good about this trade but it had to come to an end today as we saw great strength all day today.  I was not yet gotten stopped out but I didn’t want to hold over night to protect from possible gap up.  $SPY is still trading below 50 and 20EMAs and $167 pivotal level, I wouldn’t want to go long until we break above those levels.  We break below 100SMA, probably the bearish trend will continue.