Last Update: 8.22.13
8.13.13 Tuesday
[Morning] Entered Calls @ $472.50
Yesterday, we broke out of bullish flag with great volume and this morning, we gaped up above the recent resistance level. I waited for about 30 mins this morning for it to pull back to get a little bit of better entry here. This was also the level where 200SMA was residing so definitely it was the level to watch out.
[Morning] Added More Calls @ $468.29
After about 1 hour in after open, $AAPL started to pull back more as the whole market started to come down hard in the first hour. I could see volatility through out the most of my stocks that I was watching and sure enough $AAPL was also seemed as though it was falling down hard. I decided to add more calls at this level to play that fear for my advantage and knowing that the bull flag breakout continuation play can still be played out here.
[After Close] Exploded
$AAPL exploded today. Looks like it wants to fill that entire gap to the upside and next target about $510.
8.14.13 Wednesday
[Before Close] Closed 60% Call Positions @ $501.65
I don’t like moves that are all wrapped up with hype and emotion and that’s exactly what we are seeing on $AAPL. One of the reasons is because it could also come down that much fast so I decided to take some profit about 1 hour before close today. If you look at your end of the day chart, we have a doji but not just normal doji but doji after gap up this morning. This doji can turn into evening star reversal if it gaps down and flush so definitely warning signal there but nothing has been confirmed because this doji also can turn into bull flag or bull pennant. We will see tomorrow with more clarity.
8.15.13 Thursday
Looks Like a Bull Flag
I am still holding my remaining call positions as I think we are still in this bull flagging continuation pattern. It’s impressive the fact that the broad market was extremely bearish today yet $AALP stood strong. I don’t remember the last time we’ve seen $AAPL with this kind of strength. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another day or two of flagging/continuation pattern before another leg up. It still looks very much attractive for higher prices in my opinion.
8.19.13 Monday
[Morning] Closed 50% of Remaining Call Positions @ $512.04
- Major resistance level from 1/23/13 @ $515ish level
- Weekly 100SMA residing right at this level
- Declining volume
[After Close] Shooting Star Reversal
Well I am currently holding very small positions as I have been closing my call positions. I guess I am glad I was able to close most of it out earlier today at around $512. Here is a big warning signal. Shooting star reversal right at major resistance of $515 and it is backed up by volume spike today. I won’t be surprised to see this thing coming back down to about $490ish level or even lower.
8.20.13 Tuesday
Shooting Star + Engulfing Pattern
Bearish.
$490
if broken..
$470
8.22.13 Thursday
All Call Positions Closed @ $499.00
(Chart screened mid-day)
Looking at the end of the day chart, it is starting to look more like some kind of bullish continuation pattern such as bull pennant. Instead of having lower day after the bearish engulfing on 8/20, it held up last two days and that definitely helps. I am currently all of out of call position and personally I think the bigger pull back would be healthier rather than this continuation pattern as $515 seems to be looking pretty strong resistance which that coinciding with weekly 100SMA. But as of today, it does look good for more upside for short term.
How I Traded AAPL From $402 To $512 With Call Options
22 thoughts on “$AAPL My Long Trade (Part 5)”
Hi Kay,
What do think about today’s candle? a high volume shooting star, which could be a potential reversal? all the necessary ingredients are there for the reversal sign. I don’t think it means a reversal of the uptrend, rather, perhaps it will just pullback to some support level (480 or 470?). What are your thoughts? I want to jump in long with $AAPL calls, but I’m afraid to do so at this level (I think it could pullback a little before continuing up).
Thank you for your advice and help, it is very much appreciated!
Sorry, I just saw your updated note on this page and on stocktwits! thank you for the update! A doji is an even more potent reversal candle, if that is the way it plays out. Would you wait until close of market session tomorrow to help determine what today’s candle represents?
keizer_soze i probably wait until about 1 hour – 30mins before close
2kaykim keizer_soze thank you so much for responding, Kay. I have a feeling that the MM’s will win out, especially considering this is a monthly OPEX week. However, even if it reverses, this past week’s action might have finally broken $AAPL’s downtrend since last September. The weekly chart is starting to look quite bullish.
Kay, nice job.
I saw the headlines last weekend about the possible announcement date for the new iPhone and bought some on Monday morning. I was up so much that I decided to sell. Of course it was too early and I didn’t see your post as you initiated a position the day after. After seeing the moves on Tuesday, I bought back a fresh call position and then it exploded at end of day due to Carl Ichan news. Had I held all my positions from Monday… 🙁 AHHHH!!!! I would be swimming in money right now.
Yes, I saw that $500-$510 gap and figured it would head there. I got there so fast I decided to stay away. Glad I did. Market FINALLY starting to pull back on worries of Fed meeting in September (not too far away). We could see a pull back for the next several weeks (including AAPL). That’s what I wanted to see. I agree..AAPL move too high, too fast. Also, it did fill that gap. I would feel good if it pulled back before September announcement. If it is Sept 10 then they usually make an announcement about it 1 week before so we should see an official announcement on Sept 3. The stock could find support that day if it does pull back. and then retest the $500 resistance on Sept 10. This is huge because they haven’t had a major iPhone upgrade in a while.
Also noticed GOOG hitting that June $860 support. Kay you need to look at bearish scenario on GOOG unless they do well next earnings. One of the few companies that missed last earnings. They are looking top heavy and 2 misses in a row will do to it what they did to Apple back in Oct last year…crash it.
GOOG also, received that $1000 curse. 🙂
Zex_M19 I also bought some calls on monday and sold at 490ish. Kicking myself for not letting it run as it will probaply go to 520 in next week and so on…Apple seems to be the only place to be right now as goog and amzn have had there runs apple can actually go up a significant amount in terms to catch up to % change yr/yr. Actually kicking myself for not shorting amzn last week as well. Hard to focus on multiple stocks and enter/exit properly!
Killerfunpizza1 Zex_M19 killer, good job on those calls. There are 2 situations that gives us options traders more grief than anything else. That’s 1) Losing money and 2) missing out on making money. It hurts when you get hit with #2 but much worse when you experience #1. At least you made money. So easy to lose money, especially with options.
I would stay away from Apple right now unless it breaks out on Monday. Sept Fed Meeting is not far away and I’m sure they will be taking profits until then. I rather look at some high flyers like GOOG and buy puts whenever it pops up. (especially if it falls below that 860ish support). Apple can’t seem to get past that $500ish mark. Big run up, $500 psychological mark, AND QE3 tapering is keeping it at bay. A lot of good news even after wed peak above $500 and yet it can’t break past it.
But I will definitely want to buy apple calls if they DO announce an event on Sept 10. I would wait until Sept 9 to buy.
Remember, the event date was only a rumor for now. We will know Sept 3. They ALWAYS announce 1 week before the event.
Market is finally getting that correction. end of august and early sept looking ugly I think. I think next Monday, this market just continues it’s downward spiral. Taking a pause today.
Good luck on all your trades!
Zex_M19 Killerfunpizza1 $AAPL stayed up very nicely today despite of the market condition. It looks like it wants to break higher next week.
Agree. If its higher on monday then i know it still has momentum. Looked to see where it would close today. Other stocks took a bath while apple hung in there with good volume. Another down day for GOOG. Not good. I could see apple up 20 points while goog down another 20 points next week
OK so apple doing well today. 515 is where it was before the big crash downward after earnings all the way back in January. So those betting it was going up that day will have recovered all their loses if this goes up a few more points. OK, so GOOG might be down 20 this week (or it still might) but apple has already had half it’s average volume in just over 1 hour of trading while goog is only 1/4. Looks like low volume on this bounce and without any major news. If goog climbs higher I might have to buy some puts. Filled that gap at 870. Good luck everyone.
you were right Kay, there was some short term upside as we saw it today but it hit that resistance. no new highs and I agree, would be healthier if there was a bigger pullback below 500. at LEAST to 490. We might get it this week.
Bingo. Here we are.
Zex_M19 well do i glad that I got out of my calls at $499
2kaykim Zex_M19 yep, congrats kay. good to make a little than to lose any gains. I’m so glad we are having this pullback. I wanted to get sept calls below $500. We could see further drop this week but then rebound next week. IF they do have an iphone ready for Sept 10 then they will make an announcement for the event 1 week earlier. That would be Sept 3. Also Sept 2 should be closed for trading due to holiday. So I am looking to buy some calls this Friday before close hoping there is some word of the event on the 3rd. If there is an event, it should retest that $510-$515 between Sept 3 and Sept 10. Maybe even on the day of the event. So if apple is around $380ish by end of week, then that could mean a 30-35 point move in 1 week!
not feeling too good about apple today.
no announcement. everything has been speculation about the date.
I dont see my last post so…
Not feeling good about apple today. no announcement. so far nothing but speculation.
Also, low volume this morning except when it sold. not good.
Kay,
potential deal with China Moble pushing apple up today but dissapointed in the action.
I noticed that it is just sitting there. It sitting near the opening price.
If it closes like that, could this be an island reversal if it opens down tomorrow to where it was near yesterday?
I’m thinking what could cause it to go down and Samsung is revealing new products this week. Even if apple updates it’s phones, ipads, they might be a bit late to the party.
Kay, do you still have the image of the chart for a “bubble” that I sent you?
I noticed that there is a move up after the initial huge move down.
It is a false bullish move and it continues falling further down.
Talk about new products, deal with china moble, and rumors of increase buyback are the reasons why this stock has performed well recently.
I really don’t think they will come out with a breakthrough product like they did with the iphone.
anyways, apple following the “bubble” chart EXACTLY. which means it tops out between 500 and 600 and resumes downward fall. this is a multiyear bear stock. it is the next mircosoft. big company that keeps updating same products and pays out dividends.
According to the chart, Apple could hit near 200 in a year or two.
Only way that would happen is if they didn’t come out with any new inovation AND we hit a double dip recession.
which could happen. not saying it will, just saying there is the possibility.
We saw how much apple crashed without steve jobs the first time.
Zex_M19 yea I remember the image you sent me. im still waiting for $AAPL to retest 470
Kay, i would get in some calls before the apple event. Open positions on monday and average down to 490. Not likely to hit 490 but strong near term support there. Possible china mobile deal plus other carriers could break apple out of 515. With volume. That would confirm bullish trend. Which i believe in until early next year due to new products. Facebook breaking out they are the next google if ads are going there instead of google. We will see in oct if google is in trouble