LAST UPDATE: 8.3.13
7.24.13 Wednesday
[Morning] Entered Call Positions @ $436.06
[After Close] Above 100SMA
Well we are well above 100SMA for the first time since the crash but one day can’t make a trend which means we will need to see some follow through this week or next to establish some bullish momentum here. I think if the buyers can protect $435 level (level that currently is coinciding with recent pivot (from 7/18) and 100SMA) and continue drive the stock higher, we might see something happening here for longer term bullish trend. For long term trend change to bullish, bulls are desperately seeking for 100SMA and 50EMA to cross to the upside which I talked about more in detail on this post. Let’s see if we can have follow through tomorrow otherwise it was another dead cat bounce.
7.26.13 Friday
[Morning] Added More Calls @ $437.33
$433 is acting as support currently and we are forming possible bull flag right at that level so I decided to add more call positions at this level hoping that the bull flag could possible play out here. Showing great bullish resiliency this morning while we are seeing the market showing some weakness.
[After Close] Weak Volume is a Concern
We did have nice run up today but we have extremely low volume today and this is a huge problem. You can see how big today’s candle (compare to yesterday’s) is but the volume is actually lower than yesterday’s (That’s not a good sign). We need some volume and we need it very very soon preferably on Monday with possible run up. If we don’t get that volume soon, I think $AAPL can slowly fade away and start to roll over because we are still in primary downtrend. To remedy this situation, I am looking for another run up early next week (Monday or Tuesday) with big volume spike. If we don’t get that, $AAPL can fill that ER gap and just drip lower.
Weekly Chart Looking Better
Found support at 200SMA with double bottom while MACD is rising higher. Last March of 2009, that’s exactly how it came out of the mess, by finding support at 200SMA with consolidation pattern while MACD rose higher. For this double bottom to be confirmed, $AAPL needs to close well above $465 level.
7.29.13 Monday
Holding Full Positions
We’ve got the thrust today but still with low volume last three days which is very concerning. However because we’ve built some momentum since the ER gap I think we can able to get to next resistance ($457)but I am not sure if it we can able break that with no fuel (volume) in the tank. I will probably make some adjustments tomorrow depending on its intraday action.
7.30.13 Tuesday
We did able to reach my recent target of $457 but closed with weak looking candle and I do not think today’s candle qualifies to be a textbook Shooting Star reversal candle but that long upper wick definitely shows us some concern here. We continue to have low volume but its RISING so that’s not too bad. If we can possibly move sideways for about a day or two, I think we can have another leg up to about $465 level. However if we start closing below today’s low, we might even have to treat today’s candle as a Shooting Star reversal candle. (Still holding full positions)
7.31.13 Wednesday
[Morning] Added More Calls @ $452.97
[After Close] Held Up Well
I would have to say that $AAPL held up very well despite the fact that we had very weak finish in the overall market. When was last time $AAPL was able to not be bullied by the bears especially when trading right at pivot level and the market is down like today? Because of today’s action, I think we can possibly form some sort of continuation/short-term consolidation pattern here such as bull flag or pennant. If we can stay above $452, I think we can able to get to $465.00 or beyond.
Watch 50EMA and 100SMA in daily chart as they are about to cross. Once they are crossed and starts to separate, that would be an early indication of primary trend reversal.
8.3.13 Saturday
Progress so Far
I did close about 30% of my entire call positions on $AAPL as I think $465 level can be a strong resistance. As we have broken out of this bull pennant (yesterday), I’d have to say that we are continue to build this bullish uptrend here. As of today, there are no known reversal formations so I would have to see how it’s going to react to that $465 level next week. Moving averages are looking great and ADX is continue to scream bullish. $465 and $470 is going to be next levels to watch.
26 thoughts on “$AAPL My Long Trade (Part 3)”
Do you think apple sees 450+ by next week? Also, what do you think about amazon…I was going to go long around 300 because it was at the bottom of a descending channel recently but uncertain because day after earnings things can be crazy. Anyways it broke out of a descending channel starting on 7/16/13… so do you think it has more room to run..possibly to $315’s? Amazon never fails to amazon…
Killerfunpizza1 yea i think if we can clear $310, we probably see higher prices on $AMZN. $AAPL holding up very well despite of the market condition as of late. If we can take out recent highs of $440, we we probably going to see $450
2kaykim Killerfunpizza1 449.99 today! close enough to $450. congrats!
yeah, real resistance is near $460. new product announcement probably in September, until then…stuck in channel.
Zex_M19 2kaykim Killerfunpizza1 yea looking good so far this morning
2kaykim Stiff resistance at 457 again. Fed to speak later today. Could spook the market. Maybe more talk about paring back QE3. Good GDP today could give them the green light. GOOG ramped up huge yesterday. Didn’t expect that, I sold it this morning. will re-buy Goog calls at end of day for quick trade tomorrow. FB meeting resistance levels too. Looks like a good time technically to take some off the table. Even with news of AAPL talking with China mobile couldn’t break this out. Fed news gonna control the market now. Hope to make a little on pop in GOOG tomorrow and then buy puts. The old switch-er-roo. 🙂
Good luck!
2kaykim Too dangerous for me to buy puts in AAPL or FB even though I am tempted. Apple has dividends and FB is the new AAPL/GOOG golden child. Bullish on both but will wait for pull back before buying calls. Might have to wait until end of August or beginning of September. Hopefully they pulled back by then.
Zex_M19 2kaykim yea its tough to buy puts here unless u wanna day trade this.. Needs to get above $452 to see some continuation to the upside this week
amaze * lol
I agree on the volume and the fact we need follow through MON and LATEST tuesday. Though I dont see how todays action ( friday ) was ” a nice run up ” we did not move ?
grachu it gaped down to about $435 this morning but it held (despite the fact that we had very weak market condition) and it ran up intra-day about 5points. Thats a nice run up for stock like $AAPL after gap down pressure at open
2kaykim grachu thanks for anserwing the only way to learn !
K K good to know in your tweet when you sell apple?
grachu ill update this post once i exit $AAPL (not in real time)
well… i got out of apple before it went red… however it doesn’t feel like this will be a double top and down we go to 400….we have done that too many times. I’m going to get back in if it doesn’t drop anymore today/ possibly wait until tomrw… for next leg up to 465-470 next week… It’s coming back and down only -0.50 as I type this…. thoughts on bull/bear flag in the making?
Killerfunpizza1congrats. I like to match up potential news and Kay’s charts to make my moves. the 457-460 barrier is a strong one. many attempts to break it has failed. which means something big has to happen to break it with good volume. Dividends next week so I suspect any drop in apple for the next week will only get propped up. They also bought back their shares at $444…
http://bgr.com/2013/07/25/apple-stock-buyback-q3-2013/
If they are going to make a product announcement, it will be in September. That could be the break out we are looking for. Could see $500 if we do. I agree that this time we might NOT see it go back to $390 on pullback. I could see a pullback after dividends (second half of august) and then come back in September.
Also the Fed gonna let us know about QE3 or hint if they will pullback in September today in about an hour and a half. This could move the market big time.
Well…now it’s down -2.40.. no need to get back into this thing now….who knows might come back to 445’s b4 going higher.
Well…I’ll be getting in with half pos’s, IF it breaks and holf 457…. to 465…than 480.
holds*
And….down it goes…looks like a triple top is being made…Good to know when to enter on stocks that you have missed. Must break and hold that 457-458 level to go higher!!
Missed or stocks that have run a bit.
Killerfunpizza1 looks like bull pennant so far
2kaykim Killerfunpizza1
I could see that happening too…but we will need resumption to upside today/tomrw (soon)
Still unable to break that $457.
Waiting to get into apple on/if it breaks that important 457-458 and holds…anyways what do you think about amzn? it seems to be making higher highs putting in a hammer type candle today…do you think we see 310+ again?
Killerfunpizza1 yea it appears that $AMZN can possible going up to retest 310
Well i just got back in to apple…looks good to at least 465 ..and than hopefully 470+