Last Update: 7.19.13
7.11.13 Thursday
[Morning] Entered Long Positions @ $422.02
$430 is the level of resistance (if you flip it to line chart you will see why) but here is the reason why I decided to go long. First reason was looking at the broad market which I suspect it’s going to continue maybe another week or two. Second, I liked the fact that we formed textbook bull flag last 5 trading days and broke out few days ago and holding up well last few days. So I decided to initiate long positions (Calls) here.
[After Close] 50EMA & 100SMA to Watch
We did have strong finish but we are running into the resistance along with 50EMA and 100SMA here. This is the level to break to get up to about $453 level which is my 1st target. Will see how that pans out tomorrow and early next week.
7.15.13 Monday
Horizontal resistance (why there? flip it to line chart) and 100SMA coinciding at this level and we have potential shooting star candle today. This is the level $AAPL must break above otherwise more falling can be expected. What I am thinking is if $AAPL can get down to about $422 (recent pivot and 10EMA) tomorrow but hold there and then get up again to push above 100SMA next several days, we might able to find some new strength.
7.17.13 Wednesday
Added More Long Positions @ $ 428.93
Hmmm after today’s action, I am starting think maybe I shouldn’t have added the positions as we are continue to show weakness with declining volume here. $AAPL desperately need volume spike with a thrust to make this thing happen before the ER. We have 4 days until the ER and I am starting to wonder if it’s just going to be grinding action like this until then. I don’t have plan to trade through ER so no matter what I will be closing the positions before the 23rd market close
7.18.13 Thursday
Closed 60% of the Positions @ $ 432.59
ER next Tuesday after close and trading right at 100SMA, not liking this slugging action last 5 days straight. We’ve been grinding higher ever so slightly but with low volume run up, I just are not fully trusting this run here. I did leave about 40% of the positions because still there are some bullish indications at least for short term. Will see how it reacts next few days.
7.19.13 Friday
All Positions Stopped Out @ $425.60
Go To Part 3
Apple had another day of gains. Slowly creeping up but failed to close above the 50ema again.
Also noticed the low volume. But then again if you look at the charts, Apple has been know to just keep going higher on low volume. With earnings next week, not sure where this is going. Wants to go higher but fears of a bad quarter and increase in weak iPhone sales could limit any upward movement. Maybe we trade sideways until the numbers come out. If it closes above the 50 ema, I will think about getting in (needs to hot that 460 to confirm sideways trading). But It seems like it can’t hold much gains due to lack of news and volume. I’m gonna stay out this week unless something dramatic happens.
As it creeps up to that 50 ema with higher highs, something has to give.either it will stop getting higher highs or the 50 ema breaks once they intersect. We’ll see.
Good luck.
Zex_M19 declining volume definitely not good sign last three days. if $422 dun hold, $415 is possible. still holding my calls here~
2kaykim Zex_M19 WOW! look at today’s chart on apple. Is that not a perfect pennant forming? Top part at 427.4 (yesterday’s close) and perfect slope below it…425, 425.5, 426, 426.5.
Nearing the tip. Well..something’s gonna happen.
2kaykim Whenever it’s up, it sells off. When it’s down it rises. OK, Now i’m convinced that we are trading sideways until earnings. Any time it deviates from sideways pattern (shoots up or crashes down) on no news this week, then I am buying the opposite direction for a day trade. So if it goes above 430 or below 425 then I buy the other direction. LOL! CRAZY MARKET!
2kaykim Zex_M19 bought a small amount of weekly puts this morning since apple was up. very small. we could see this retest that 385-390 if it gets ugly. if it does, I think it breaks it and we finally get to that $365. If 385 breaks then I will load up everything into puts until 365 and then sell it all and buy calls. Or everything bad was factored in and this going up to $460 to keep it within the channel. done buying anything until earnings.
2kaykim Looks like back to 460
2kaykim sold my aapl puts for a loss and still holding my goog puts.
Zex_M19 yea $AAPL looks bullish this morning (im long since about 436 this morning) and I also have to say that $GOOG also looks bullish forming bull pennant (im also long on it since 3 days ago)
what is your stop?
hopeofslope it lil below 10 and 20EMA
I noticed you entered on 7.11 which was the day right after that shooting star was formed…did that gap up cancel out any thoughts of a down day not to mention the volume was lower on that hammer on 7.10?
Dorahc22 that wasn’t a shooting star (candle is too small compare to bullish candle of the day before) and yes even if it was a shooting star, it was already negated in the morning when it gaped up
Interesting one last question if you don’t mind, in your experience what gives a stronger confirmation to consider a candle like that a definite or highly likely shooting star reversal signal?
Dorahc22in candle analysis whats important is three things 1. location (Where it formed) 2. the size of the candle (compare to candles around) 3. volume to confirm. so 8/19 candle on $AAPL is more of potent shooting star cuz it formed right at major resistance of $515 and with good size of candle and volume confirmed it.