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Last Update: 6.19.13

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6.14.13 Friday

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Entered Long Positions @ $163.46

We’ve finding great support at 50EMA (pink dotted line) and here is the alarming thing about that fact. We found support before at that 50EMA level back in middle of April and we bounced hard so the question is can it do it again and bounce again?  Truthfully no one knows the answer to that questions so my job isn’t to try to guess if or if not the 50EMA is going to hold but my job is to find the probability of the outcome and making the decision in that direction.  Because we are still in an uptrend and 50EMA has not been broken, I have decided that we have high probability that this thing could continue higher.

$167ish the next target but $163.30 is the level that needs to break before getting there.  If we struggle there, it might come back down to test that 50EMA area.

$VIX Chart No One is Talking About

[$VIX Daily Chart with RSI]

Many are talking about $VIX how it’s ready to soar and I do have reasons to believe (weekly bullish divergence on $VIX) that it could but as far as short-term is concerned, this is the chart NO ONE is talking about. As you can see not only $VIX is at overbought status but we currently forming bearish divergence on RSI.  $VIX don’t like to stay at overbought status too long.  Either it’s going to fall back down hard or it’s going to have it’s retracement period of time.  I think for short-term time frame (maybe 1 – 2 weeks), I believe $VIX is going back down and $SPY will rise higher.

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6.18.13 Tuesday

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Broken Above Recent Resistance Level

$165.50ish was the level I have been watching very closely since Friday.  This is the level bulls needed to break for higher prices and today we did that but on low volume which is concerning a bit.  Not sure what’s going to happen with FED meeting tomorrow but $168ish is the next target.

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6.19.13 Wednesday

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I am All Out @ $164.25

Well I was looking for at least $168ish for my next target but with today’s action, I was forced to closed all my Call Options earlier today.   I will be watching uptrend support and 50EMA and see how it reacts to that level.