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Last Update: 5.16.13
5.6.13 Monday
Apple (AAPL) Bottomed: Exploring Bullish Arguments
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5.16.13 Thursday
Next Couple Days is the Key For Higher
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Kay, Great analysis as always! So I guess you are not in AAPL right now? I am not either. Have a great day!
TraderEllen not yet ellen. u too!
Kay,
After I saw some resistance the other day near 460, I noticed that it hit the same price as the last high. Then I noticed a potential reverse head and shoulders. I was about to post my observation but then I noticed you already saw that and put it in your video. LOL! Except I thought 430 in april was the left shoulder instead of your 430 in march. Nevertheless it looks like we are seeing the same thing. But I have to see some event catalyst to support the technicals and…we have it!
Apple running up because of dividends (ex dividend date is tomorrow – thurs, so the last day to take that juicy dividend is if you buy apple shares today – wed). But we are seeing some resistance now that we are near the dividend date AND we just so happen to hit the 100ema at the same time. But there is nothing else going on afterwards (no news has been bad news for this stock) so that could cause this stock to pullback. Also could see profit taking after the big run up along with the fact that people already got their dividends so no reason to hold it for now. So what would cause it to come back in a few weeks to form that reverse head and shoulders? The WWDC event in June. Then we are in the summer months and rumors of new or updated devices will start swirling causing it to go higher. So futures events and the TIMING of those events seem to support the strong possibility for a reverse head and shoulder. I will be looking to buy some puts this week and will cover them when they get near 430. Then ride it back up. Since I am anticipating a move back up in June, I have no need to buy puts past June expiration. High risk, high reward.
One more item to support a more bullish stance in Apple is this: We have seen apple tank and keep going lower even as the market was being VERY bullish and making new highs. But now we are finally seeing apple move up ALONG with the market. FINALLY!
Your analysis was great and really helpful.
Thanks and good luck!
Zex_M19 thnx bro and also for sharing your insight. yea lets see how it plays out rest of the week. As of today, looks like it is holding up well.
The 100 EMA was strong resistance for Apple this week, backed off from it quite a bit during the course of the week, while the indices were markedly higher. Just consolidating before another move higher, or is a retest of the lows appearing more likely?
dodger1k well yes 100SMA is acting as resistance but if you look at the volume last 4 days, it has been declining and that tells me there isn;t lot of force of selling at 100SMA yet. So once can actually look at the current daily chart as bullish flag forming under 100SMA but once bears claim 10EMA and closing below that level, we can expect more selling to $420.
Kay, old resistance, new support?
50 ema was a very tough nut to crack.
I was waiting for this to fall back.
Looks like it hit the 50 ema perfectly today.
50 ema = 442.16. Todays low = 442.15 !!!!
I got rid of my puts (barely made anything cause I was too impatient).
Now I look for entry to ride this back up towards WWDC in June.
I think 50 ema is a good start. then 430ish for a possible right shoulder (inverted H&S). then 420 for double bottom.
good luck!
Ouch! Only thinking about all the money I would have made if it didn’t get out early. SIGH!
Uh well. I’m gonna chill and look into getting calls next week.
We have like 3 weeks before apple conference. Look at what Goog conference did fir it’s stock yesterday and today!
Looking to start getting June monthly calls late next week and buy on any dips. We could break that 100ema by then. and then onwards to $500. but only if inverted H&S is confirmed. So far so good. Pullback was good sign for longs.
Zex_M19 put up a new video. check it out. I think next couple days is the key here
Hey Kay, What App do you use to draw on your charts. I love it =]
ncoldboy07 I use Presentation Assistant for the drawing tool. Its a great lil tool~
Very bearish analyst has turned and become very bullish…inverse head and shoulders.
But we already knew that. 🙂
Also gives a reason about Tim Cook heading to Washington to testify on Tuesday. Didn’t see that coming but another case for the bulls.
Here is a link to what we already knew…
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/20/apple-bottom-technical-shoulders/?source=yahoo_quote
Good job Kay on spotting this earlier.
Zex_M19 yea but i am not really digging the volume actio last three days. and currently the gap area is becoming a resistance at $445 and after that 100SMA then $465. Without a volume spike to the upside, it won’t be easy to break those levels. I will be watching closely this week