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12.12.12 Wednesday
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$DJIA-Dow Jones Index
Gravestone Doji today which is a weak form of bearish reversal. Triple top neckline is acting as resistance.
If that resistance holds this week, I am expecting sharp pull back.
Retracement Target = around $12,800
$SPX-S&P 500 Index
Same story here just like Dow Jones.
Retracement Target = around $1,390
$COMPQ-NASDAQ Composite Index
NASDAQ is the weakest Index out of three. It pulled back before so we saw bears threat with Bearish Engulfing reversal candle on the 3rd of this month. Today we’ve got a Bearish Dark Cloud Cover which is bearish reversal pattern. If that resistance holds this week, sharp pull back is imminent.
Retracement Target = around $2,940
$DJT-Dow Jones Transportation Index
Shooting star yesterday and ANOTHER shooting star today. Two makes stronger than one.
Retracement Target = around $5,020
$UUP-Dollar Index
Dollar Index usually moves opposite of the market. We got ourselves a Hammer (potential bullish reversal) at this uptrend support.
Retracement Target = around $22.00
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12.13.12 Thursday
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$DJIA-Candle Sticks Reversal Confirmed If…
($SPX’s candles formation looks exactly the same)
We are looking at (last three candles) bearish reversal formed right at the major resistance area. This reversal formation will be confirmed if we close below $13,134 area with good looking bearish candle. This typical candle formation is for a reversal and not a pull back signal. Which means we could see complete reversal of this trend however we don’t have enough data to confirm that yet so tomorrow will be very important day to determine where the Market as a whole will go.
$COMPQ-Double Top Reversal Confirmed If…
If we close below $2,958 area tomorrow with good looking bearish candle, this double top reversal formation will be confirmed. Again the double top formation is a trend reversal formation and not a pull back or retracement signal. When this is fully confirmed, we might see full on reversal on this NASDAQ Index. It means we could possibly see the bottom of this recent uptrend move yet again. Again we don’t have enough data to confirm any of that but there is sentiment floating around that could lead to full on reversal.
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12.16.12 Sunday
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$DJIA-Likes Evening Star Reversals
12 thoughts on “Expected Retracement $DJIA $SPX $COMPQ $DJT $UUP (Update 12/16)”
Hi Kay, just one question: How did you select the down move targets? e.g., how did you decide the SPY pull back target to 1390? Thanks for the clarification.
@Ellen168 @followkim well ladies, if you take a closer look at my charts, you can see that the target is the short-term support. You can see that correct? So its likely that’s where its headed if indeed if those indexes and ETF falls this week however I didn’t end there. I confirmed with Fib. Retracement levels which confirmed with 50% retracement zone. So all of those targets are established with recent support and confirmed with with Fib. hope this helps
@Ellen168 @followkim obviously you must understand that these are just possible scenario targets.. we could bounce before the target or even we can go further down.. (market always does what it wants to do) but I am just trying to ascertain where it might be (or high possibility scenario) so I have some kind of idea =)
@2kaykim @Ellen168 that is what analyst do and that is why I really love your works,not just because you worked so hard, also because you always tried to giving the most objective opinions with high possibility scenario. most of time the market do the opposite to what is obvious to most trader. that makes this game very challenging….just keep studies and try harder. Thank you Kim ! 🙂
Hi, Kim, I like the question that Ellen 168 asked,also would love to learn about it from you:) Thanks for the guidance of the market next move. Good night !
Oh yes, I got it and its makes good sense. well learn once more from you Kim. Appreciated !please take rest of well do some little thing for fun or relax. Good night !!!
@followkim u r so nice Liya~ u as well~~ =) nighty nite~
Hope you have a blessed holiday season. I feel similar to your article. Your comments that you place here twitter and so many other sites are met with great appreciation. Thank You and God Bless
Hi Kay, thank you very much for the insight. I learn a little by little about the technical side of trading. Really appreciate your help. Have a great day!
Kim I have a question for you, that a few ppl on ST has had told me that I should to learn and trade option. I do like trade option in the future time while I can take full time for trading, I thought I should work better on stocks trading first …but???? what is your idea??? Thanks!
@followkim Well Liya.. Safest way to trade would be just trading stocks because u can only lose by the tick however when it comes to Options. you can lose 20-30% of your investment in an hour. Which means if you don’t know how Options work, you could lose all your investment matter of days.. What I would do is that first setup a virtual account. Then play around with it while learning about Options. It might take a year or two but its still worth it because I’ve seen people get BURNED very quickly not knowing how the Options work… But i know you have patience in this game so I know you will plan it well
@2kaykim that is exactly what I heard from others before and knowing that the option trading is much more risky and more complicated than stocks. it seems not fit with my personality:(…but still want to know some about it. OK, I will do what you told me have a account first then play a little each of time and see can i fit in this game? I have real passion on trading stock with enough patience and the goal to achieve…long way to go… take one day each of time to build a strong foundation first. also I wish some day I can have the best tech chart analysis and trading skill as well as you do…Haha ha. Thank you so much Kim and Good night !