11/8 Thursday

Entered Bearish @ $36.43

We got a classic Double Top pattern here (M for MURDER).

We confirmed M pattern yesterday by pushing through the neckline. I did not get in yesterday but waited until today and fortunately it gaped up.  Today, it was testing the neckline there and hung out there most of the day until about 20mins before close then it gave out.

As you can see we had very good selling volume yesterday and that helped very much to fuel today’s move.

In any chart pattern, location is everything and if we pay attention to where the M pattern appeared is more important than the M pattern itself.  Last time when $C was trading at that level of major resistance of $38.50, it tanked about 14 points.  So can we say that it is EXTREMELY important price point.

And on that resistance we are going to see some MURDERING action.

Target 1 = $31 (This is where it’s going to meet with 200/100SMAs)

Target 2 = $29 (This is where long term support resides – see image below)

Target 3 = $25  (This is what I call “FLOOR”)

I always have high targets but depending on the road condition, I might close it out early at any given moment.

You can see here that the long term rising supports in the bottom which I will be watching very closely when we get there.  But this image gives me some frame work on this bearish trade and expectations of what is to come.

Yesterday we pushed through 20EMA and today we tested it as resistance and fell. 50EMA coming up soon here as well as  200SMA (red) and 100SMA (blue) definitely going to act as a resistance as continue to travel lower tomorrow and coming weeks.

11/13 Tuesday

Carefully Observing The Neckline…

When Are You Bringing The Knife?

M pattern neckline has been carefully observed last 4 straight days while the volume has been decreasing.

See before murdering this thing,  bears really need to observe it well so they can have clean and precise murdering action so there are no hiccups afterwards.    This is the job that requires tremendous homework before taking an action.

We all know that the neckline has been served as a resistance last 4 days and we also know that the more it touches the stronger it becomes.  That is why double tops and triple tops happen.  First time they failed so they come back on the second time and they failed again thus creating a double top.  So we’ve been hitting this resistance for the last 4 days and I think it’s pretty solid by now and bulls are probably starting to realized the neckline resistance is now a brick walll while the bears are probably just sharpening their butcher knife.

Let’s go to the different sources and see what they think about this Murder case.

(Stoch, RSI, MACD)

Well well well..  We got all three votes here saying that we must Murder $C.

Tomorrow might be the day we no longer see high 30’s level for a while….

WILL BE CONTINUED….

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11/14 Wednesday

It Has Just Begun..

Weapon of choice for Murder = forming a Bearish Engulfing at the neckline resistance.

(I added more bearish positions early this morning. Got to prepare for these kind of action)

11/23 Friday

Dow Rallies, $C Stays Put

$DJIA (Dow) gained almost 500 points last 5 trading days and it is looking mightily bullish this week however not so much on $C here.  What is this mean?  Usually the financials are very good at following the indexes but not so much in this case.

As I have talked about in my Dow analysis, I think Dow is on its way to test that neckline of that initial Head and Shoulders pattern I pointed out. So many investors are not too optimistic on banks yet as they do not know where the market might be going next few weeks.  Even though we’ve had great bullish days last 5 days on the indexes, we all know slow and steady growth is the truth growth on any fallen stock or index.  Yes I do believe that the DOW moved up too fast which indicates the vulnerability of its strength because it never truly built that bases before making a new bullish trend. (If you look at past price actions of the Dow, it always consolidates after a big fall).

With that said, I do believe that bears are STILL hanging around here. Just think about it.  Massive bullish days on the index last 5 days and this stock couldn’t even push through the recent resistance at $36.50.  What do you think it will happen on this stock when we have bearish day on the Dow? It will tank.  You can see it on this chart that bears are not letting bulls take over.  They are letting bulls get into their doors but they are not letting them in yet.

So next week, the Dow starts to roll over, you can count on this stock that it WILL roll over.  However if the Dow pushes through the neckline and continue bullish, I do believe that investors will get more confidence and will start to buy back these financials stocks.

I am still in this trade with my puts (pretty heavily) and I got to say I don’t know what’s going to happen but I am still waiting for MURDER action here!! =)

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11/28 Wednesday

(10:00am CT) Not Looking That Strong

Well essentially we rolled over but I am not digging the candle formations last 7 days.  It looks like it has no strength. It did gap down slightly this morning but currently struggling to break that $34 support area which is from the gap open level (yellow highlighted).

I am not sure if we are going to break that level today but in the even that we break through that, next support is at around $31 which is also the gap open level (yellow highlighted).   It’s crucial that we break this current support of $34 otherwise this thing could bounce back up any moment.

12/6 Thursday

Got Stopped Out Yesterday

Well didn’t lose much except lots of time value from my options premium.Month of waiting down the drain.. =(