9/19 Wednesday

We’ve been consolidating for about week and it seems as though we broke out of that today.

My short-term target is at around $56.50.  Depending on the market and the price action, possibly we can ride it to $54. Furthermore even $51 if it plays out the way we planned but for now nothing has confirmed except the fact that possibly we are seeing some early reversal signals.

1st target of $56.50 also coincides with 20EMA which confirms the pivotal significance of that price point.

So here are the obstacles we must overcome before making some money on this trade. 10,20,50EMAs.

As you can see on William %R indicator that we clearly were consolidating in overbought territory for a while and starting to move again.  Definitely great early signals of short-term reversal.. still more data is needed to confirm anything at this point

9/20 Thursday – Weekly Chart Triangle

In technical terms, we can’t really use this as a Triangle pattern because the duration of the formation (Many technical analysts would say). They say its too long for a triangle formation.

They may be right but I am more interested in practicality than terminology.  Whatever you want to call this thing, I don’t care but what I know is that $CME has been respecting those pivot lines.  So my proposal is (if you are interested in longer term investment), we might see $51 price level in few months.

Even on weekly chart, we can see that we threw two spinning tops at resistance showing that we are at least slowing down.  No major reversal signals are given on this weekly chart but definitely its respecting that upper resistance.

9/21 Friday – I might be thinking longer term

Well this could take months to get to  my ultimate target of $51.  I made a decision to go longer-term bearish trade after seeing the weekly triangle pattern.   Well only problem is market as a whole is in very bullish trend (e.i. Dow Index).

So we are pretty much going against the current.  However if you look at $CME in a big picture of things, we haven’t really made solid trend. Kind of moving sideways if you asked me.  So I think its doable.  I might decide to just get out at $56.50 which is going to be solid support.

I mean this is such a early stage I am not sure but I am saying I am going to shoot for it. It means that my stops will be loose and not as tight.  That’s why I’ve moved up my current stop.

We had great volume today needless to say which could really boost this bearishness next week. Well will see if it actually going to play out.

9/26 Wednesday – We got a Hammer

Tightened my stop just a little bit because we got a Hammer today.

Hammer is a early reversal signal. This candle is not strong reversal signal but definitely something to watch out for because it occurred at support.   That’s what makes that Hammer that much significant to this bearish trade I am in.

If we start to reverse tomorrow and the Market Indexes start to rise, I will jump out quickly.  But for now, we got nothing but early signs of reversal, more data is needed to confirm.

10/1 Monday – Got Stopped out

Got stopped out today.  I think my stop was too tight. Still lots of bearish sentiment remains.

I might going bearish again if or when it closes below that support.