9/17 Monday

Well before I start with my analysis I must say that we have not yet completely broken bullish momentum looking at my oscillators.  So this could be little risky but looking at candle patterns, chart patterns and moving averages, I am very convinced that quick reversal is what seems to be happening here.

First looking at the chart pattern, you can see that we got to our $46.70 resistance and threw a shooting star (which is pretty strong reversal signal especially when it happens after a bullish rally) and this happened after a rising window gap.

Then this morning, we gaped DOWN with pretty strong bearish candle.  So we gaped up 3 trading days ago, then we threw a shooting star reversal at resistance then we gaped down today with a bearish candle = Island Reversal.

Island reversal is pretty strong reversal signal and that is one of the reason why my bearish trigger for tomorrow is very tight.

Targets at around $36, $32.

We might be forming a inverted head an shoulder pattern so $36 price point we might bounce thus creating right shoulder so watch out for that.

Here is another confirmation of why that $46.70 resistance was a strong resistance.

It coincides with 100 SMA.  Every time you see double confirmation on resistance or pivot area, that price point is that much significant.

I have not yet decided where I want to put my stop if  or when i do get triggered tomorrow morning because risk:reward ratio isnt so great on this one.. above $46 is probably more solid stop but I might be risking too much. Just above gaped area is probably better with risk:reward ratio but not as solid resistance there.  Argh.. I just can’t decide now. Probably tomorrow morning I might have better idea looking at the market as a whole.

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9/18 Tuesday

Well unfortunately we didn’t continue bearish today but bulls came back. That does not mean the whole trend momentum is shifted.  We still have this reversal sentiment on it.  My stop is tight.  $46 is probably the more solid stop but then again I do not want to risk that much on this trade. If we continue bullish tomorrow and trades above Monday’s high, I probably will get stop out of this.

As long as that window stays open I am BEARISH on this (along with a shooting star reversal at a major pivot).

Well let’s see how it behaves tomorrow.

*NOTE = Oscillators have not rolled over… They are sending neutral to bullish signals*

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9/19 Wednesday Noon

Moved up my stop. $45 very solid pivot and looking at today’s price action, I am quiet bearish.

$44 falling window resistance is holding well today forming a dark cloud cover currently at resistance.

Most indicators are still signaling that bullish momentum is still there while starting to turn over to the neutral territory so be cautious. Because bullish sentiment still hanging around.

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9/21 Friday

-Island Reversal Confirmed

Yup that’s what the technical geeks like myself would see but I think its absolutely fascinating.

Lots of bearish sentiments here at resistance.

Seems like the Island Reversal is confirming (the gap is still open) and we had great price action on volume last several days.

Today we have very strong bearish candle which engulfs last 6 trading days candles (Bearish Engulfing = Strong reversal signal)! Incredible!

Next week we should see this thing tanks to $36 price level as long as the market indexes does not SPIKE UP. It can stay flat like it has been or slowly roll over, this thing is going to continue to tank.

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9/26 Wednesday

-Approaching 1st Target

Approaching my first target at $36.  I did tightened my stop today as you can see.

I’ve drawn this possible inverted head and shoulder pattern.  There is no reversal signal yet so I am not saying this is what is shaping up to be but I am saying if we start to reverse at our support (1st target). And goes bullish from there, we are shaping up for inverted head and shoulder which is pretty bullish when that is confirmed.

But again we don’t have any sort of that reversal or anything like that right now but I just drew it there to show you that it could be doing something like that in worst case scenario.

Still looking pretty bearish so far though looking the indicators.

Parabolics – Been on bearish side last 3 days and its far from hitting the candles so BEARISH!

Stoch – Absolutely bearish

RSI – kind of flattening it out but bearish weight is still there and still got room to go bearish

MACD – Early stage of crossing over so neutral with hint of bearishness

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10/1 Monday

-Bearish Continuation

Looks like we’ve formed a Bearish Pennant pattern in the middle of the bearish run (short-term).

These are known as resting patterns where the stock is slowing down to rest and continue bearish.

As you can see that we have a Bearish Engulfing today so looks good to our 1st target this week.

If we break out of this pennant pattern, I will probably move my stop to just above that pennant formation this week.

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10/4 Thursday

10/8 Monday – Possible Inverted Head n Shoulder

Ah man.. this is what I was afraid of this whole bearish trade that we might be forming a inverted head and shoulder as I have pointed it out in previous update. Well looks like left shoulder is becoming a solid support and we bounced very hard today.

This candle formation is One White Soldier which is one the strongest reversal signal. Volume isn’t all that great though.

Tightened my stop and possibly get stopped out tomorrow.

10/9 Tuesday – Got Stopped out