8/13 Monday – Bullish Trigger at above $144.22
$110 has been a solid support for a long time for $CVX since late March 2011.
We did finally broke out of that and more importantly CLOSED above that pivot.
My bullish trigger at above $114
$109.20 is good stop or $109.65 is also a tighter stop which that lines up with 20EMA.
Target is at around $122 which is my 161.8% Fibonacci Uncharted Territory Expansion measuring from $112 to $96.
Fibonacci is one of my favorite tool to forecast next target when trading stocks that are trading above the all time highs.
There is a possibility that we might come back down to test that $110 as a new support before going back up so make
sure to take into account.
**CONCERN: VOLUME HAS BEEN DECLINING WHILE STOCK HAS BEEN MOVING UPWARDS**
Moving averages are VERY BULLISH.
as you can see that 10 EMA (green line) has been acting as short term support last few weeks!
20EMA could work as good support but because of this bullishness we had last several weeks I think its inevitable that we will see some pull back or retracement so I personally put my stop at $109 because I don’t want to get stopped out too early.
Bullish Engulfing suggests more bullishness there.
So only concern I have right now is that of declining volume and we’ve been bullish last two months, so I think we are due for some pull back.
But overall definitely a bullish sentiment and target is very doable
9/6 Thursday
As I have said on my very first update that we might come back down and test that $110 area as new support and come back up and that;s what we are seeing right now.
I actually like it when stock retraces or slows down at a pivot (especially on bullish break-out trade) because usually after a long bullish move it needs some rest so that the indicators have chance to reset after being at overbought territory.
In this case, we had almost 2-3 months of bullish run June, July, Aug. And it hit that major pivot area and it slowed down and now its coming back up. Now when it breaks out, its going to have that much momentum and strength because it had chance to rest and reset those indicators. Whereas if we would’ve continued we wouldn’t have enough momentum to get to our target which is $122.
So it really is setting up nicely for us to get in bullish very fresh and start a new bullish trend after a rest. It’s worth waiting for one of these trades. They work out well.
9/12 Wednesday Morning – Triggered Bullish
Well finally! After about a month of watching this thing, I’ve gotten triggered bullish yesterday!
But so far not so strong though… it almost looks like a scared baby feeling the water because we are at all time high. so understandable right? My target is at around $120 that target has been established through my Fibonacci Analysis.
My stop is where you can in the chart. I just don’t want this thing to come back down below that new support it is testing.
As long as it continues to test that new support and hang out there, we will find some support there.
Let;s look at my Oscillators because it tells me bullish move is coming soon.
Here you can see that we’ve had this initial bullish move for about 3 months. During that time my oscillators were hanging out at overbought territory which they can. Just because it’s at overbought territory does NOT mean it has come down but it means that it will need some sort of reset/rest period before CONTINUING in bullish direction.
And that’s exactly what we did Aug 15 – Sept 5. This is what we call a Corrective Move.
Corrective move is very important before continuing bullish. STOCK CAN’T KEEP GOING BULLISH IT NEEDS TO REST.
So after a rest, now we are setting up another bullish move here and that’s what I am trying to ride.
BBands – we do have slight BBands squeeze since about 4 trading days ago
Stoch – Reset and ready for another bullish run and lots of room to go
RSI – Kinda neutral but slightly bullish
MACD – Also reset and rested for another bullish run
9/13 Thursday – UP!
Wow we’ve been tracking this thing about a month now! And finally its moving! sometimes it takes that long to prepare everything until it moves. Volumes came back in and we are now finally moving out of our current resistance. Be warned though, we might come back down and test that as new support.
Nice Bollinger Bands break out.
Stoch = getting close to overbought but still got some room to move and very bullish still looking at the angles.
RSI = At overbought territory but still pointing up supporting the bullish move.
MACD = lines crossing and PLENTY room to move.
**NOTE** Just because indicators are at overbought territory does NOT mean it has to fall back. RSI, STOCH, MACD can hang out at overbought territories as long as they want as long as the trend continues. On this particular stock, we don’t have any sign that it is rolling over.
9/17 Monday Morning – Looking strong
Looking pretty strong this morning. I moved up my stop to protect my gains. Possibly we can able to get to our target this week.
9/18 Tuesday – Slowing down
well nothing much to report here except the fact that we are slowing down. My stop is little tight because this thing might want to come down and test $114 as new support and bounce back up.
We’ve been having declining volume which is normal while the stock is slowing down in consolidation. Looks like $116.53 is served as short-term/recent support and hopefully we can stay and hold.
Possibly we are forming a stair-step continuation pattern. Stair-step patterns usually travel sideways and then boom another break-out. So I am hoping for that but I just don’t want to wait if or when it decides to come back down to test $114 pivot as new support.
STOCH, RSI and ADX all overbought territory and it is due for some rest or reset.. so possibly few more days of sideways movement or possible pull back.
9/19 Wednesday – Stopped out
Well got stopped out this morning with just a little bit of gain (as long as no loss its a good thing).
I am still bullish on $CVX on longer term. I think we are going to test $114 as new support and at that time, I might bet back in for another bullish run.
