Last Update: 1/16/2018
Earlier this morning I’ve decided to add more CALLS at 145.96 (see chart below) as it was retesting that rising-channel resistance (see arrows). I think there is a chance where it could fall back down little more to fill the “Gap” area at 144.40ish just to shake people out, as already too many traders have been waiting and anticipating this bounce at this level. But, also it could be a legitimate bounce where IWM could take us to next leg higher, which I am thinking 157ish as my next target. Either way, I am happy with my entry today as I am still holding sizable CALL-positions on IWM. It was lot of waiting game for months in the early part of my trades (as you can see my positions status chart below), but since the September-run now I believe IWM is preparing to really stretch its wings once again. Let’s see how it plays out, more updates later.
We saw a pretty strong reversal day today with a gap-up and the follow through confirming the 65min bullish-divergence (which I’ve talked about on my mid-week update video last night). That 145ish-level definitely was a strong level of a support with that rising pivot (dotted blue) and the horizontal pivot (red box) colliding in that vicinity. So, now that we have a strong bounce, let’s see if we can able to see a continuation to the upside to get this minor-term momentum to continue. Currently, IWM is trading above the fast moving averages so sentiment is shifting bullish in the minor term, we just need to see if the bulls can keep the momentum going. If it reveres back down sharply in the next few days, we would want to see buyers protecting 144-145 level. Let’s see how it plays out, more updates later.
IWM just printed new all-time high today with the ‘gap-up-&-go’ move this morning; real strong move last four days ever since it retested 145ish level (I think that 145-dip truly was a gift, especially for many traders who were not able to participate in September-run as we may not see that 145-level for a very, very long time–maybe never again). In the minor term, I want to see 150-149 hold for this momentum continue to the upside. My next target is still at 157 and 160 before unloading some of my positions. Trend is up and strong and not at all ‘overbought’ sentiment in the daily chart, so I want to continue to give ‘benefit of the doubt’ to the buyers. As of today, I am still holding sizable CALL-positions on IWM. More updates later.
Yesterday we did see a strong thrust on IWM as the buyers protected 150-support on Monday. Today, we threw ‘doji’ candle which means ‘indecision’ in the minor term. 151.50 – 150.50ish is the level to watch for the minor-term support should the price slide in the next few days. In the longer term though, I think IWM still looks very much attractive for my next targets 157 and 160. Maybe, there is a short-term consolidation in-stored for the Russell 2000. This isn’t the time for a ‘deep‘ analysis, but rather, just let the trend to play out. I am still holding sizable CALL-positions on IWM, more updates later.
I’ve decided close another 1/4 of my holding CALL-positions earlier this afternoon on IWM at 151.47. Similar to my Citi positions, I am just managing risk here as the market continues to be in a ‘stretched’ condition, but that does not mean it can’t go higher, hence, why I am still holding sizable positions on it. If IWM continues to move forward to the upside in the next 1-2 weeks, I will start to close out my remaining-holding positions bit more aggressively. I do see ‘bearish divergence’ occurring in the daily-chart which I will elaborate on this coming Market Update video on Friday. Well, let’s see how it plays out, more updates later.
I’ve decided to close another 1/4 from the remainder of my CALL-positions earlier today on IWM at 154.20. As I’ve been articulating on my Market Update videos, I am going to continue unload my equity CALLS as the market continues to move higher like it did today. Not only I’ve unloaded some CALLS on IWM today, but I’ve also been unloading my other equity CALL-positions that I’ve been holding since the summer time. I still do like IWM very much for the long-term and that’s why I am being conservative with the unloading size, as I still hold sizable positions.
For the minor-term momentum to continue to the upside, we would want the buyers to protect the gap that has been open this morning, as long as the gap remains open, I think IWM could grind up higher. 157ish would be my next target before unloading some more, more updates later.
Earlier today I’ve decided to close 1/3 from my holding CALL-positions at 153.42. I’ve been liquidating many of my other positions as well this week as we are entering into 2018 trading next week. As I’ve talked about on my last Market Update video, I am still in the camp that we may see 5-6% corrections on S&P possibly in January, if not, February. IWM did close today at 152.50 with the bearish engulfing candle and it starting look heavy here throughout this month’s trading. I still like IWM for the long-term and I believe IWM will do well next year as well, but for now, for the minor to intermediate term, I am starting to turn cautious here. As of today, I am not sure what level I will be adding more–let’s first see how it plays out in the first few weeks of trading in 2018.
Happy new years!
CLOSED: 1/3 @ 150.13
Last Friday. I’ve decided to close another 1/2 from my holding CALL-positions on IWM at 158.22–now I am just holding marginal positions going into this week. Trend is up and seems to be strong on IWM but I am mostly managing risk due to the extended nature of this market. I’ve been liquidating multitude of my CALL-positions last few weeks, and IWM is one of them. 162ish is probably my final target before completely unloading rest of my positions.
CLOSED: 1/3 @ 150.13
1/16/2018 (FINAL UPDATE)
I’ve decided to completely close out my CALL-positions on IWM earlier this morning @ 159.09. Didn’t like the another gap-up move on SPY this morning, so now, I am completely out of IWM CALLS since this morning–I guess it was a good thing that I closed it out earlier because IWM is now trading at 156.18 post market. This does not mean the trend has been dismantled or whole thing is about to crash. Trend is still in effect, so I would still want to give benefit of the doubt to the buyers until it changes; I am simply managing risk of my exposure which I’ve been doing last few weeks. As of today I am not sure when I will get back in–possibly after about 5-7% corrections in the broad market.
Overall, I am satisfied the trade because I was heavily involved all through out 2017. However, I guess, I was expecting much bigger move on IWM, but we don’t always get what we want and I’ve learned to be content with whatever market gives us as long as its a profit. I was first engaged in IWM back in late February of 2017 and today 16th of January 2018, its about a 1-year position trading, I feel that I executed very well. Again my executions were good, it just didn’t move as much as I thought it would.
CLOSED: 1/3 @ 150.13
ALL CLOSED: @ 159.09