$AAPL

September 23, 2013

$AAPL Levels I am Watching (Part 3)

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Written by: Kay Kim
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Last Update: 10.13.13

 

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9.23.13 Monday

 

Next Level:  $515.00

*Daily Chart

9-23-2013 9-19-14 PM

As we’ve been talking about $450-$454 level being very important level on the last article (click here) because of many vital signs that were coinciding at that level, I think we’ve seen some great bounces right at that $450 level where 100SMA is residing.

As you can see 100SMA continue to maintain pretty impressive resume acting as pivotal level for $AAPL (see circled) since early Mary.  Sure enough and yet again, we’ve bounced off of 100SMA on this daily chart on 9/17 and we started gapping higher every day for the last 4 days since 9/17.

What impressed me the most about last 4 days action is how it managed to keep the gaps open and kept moving higher. Today with huge gap up after the weekend sales numbers, $AAPL was able to stay up today without filling the gap which means, now we have potential island reversal that can be played out by the bulls (island reversal is one of the stronger reversal pattern).  And yes it might still be too early to say that the island reversal is going to truly play out because bears can fill that gap tomorrow or this week however with today’s price action, I can’t help to think that we probably going up to $510 level soon here. And during that process, the island reversal will continue to support the move to the upside.

Again, bulls task must remain to preserve the gap and make sure bears do not close the gap that was opened this morning so that the bulls can continue to cultivate this recent rally.

Ideally, I would like to see this thing consolidate for about 2-3 days above $486 level before thrusting higher and I don’t think it would be such a good idea to have another gap up tomorrow morning.  We would need some “settling down” action holding above $486 level.  If we can do that, I do believe we can see much higher prices.

$510-$515 will be the next level of resistance to watch and if we break above that level, I do think we are going to $530 level and ultimately $550.

Next Level if $515 is Breached: $530

*Weekly Line Chart

9-23-2013 9-33-56 PM

Weekly H&S Neckline level could act as resistance.  This is the pivot level that has been respected when we formed that huge weekly H&S reversal formations back in early December of 2012 and certainly I wouldn’t ignore this level as possible resistance.

Double Bottom Measured Move $530

*Chart screened and analysis added on 10/12/13

 10-12-2013 9-31-26 PM 3434

(Weekly Chart)

  • H&S Measured move was about $360 and $AAPL bottomed at $380
  • Double Bottom measured move is $530 measuring from the perceived neckline

Next Level if $530 is Breached: $550

*Daily Chart

9-23-2013 9-37-16 PM

If we can break above $515 and $530, the next level to watch would be $550 which I think it can become ultimate target before the next ER.  I do think $530 will slow things down and we might get a pull back here and there but once we bust through $530, $550 will be a good level to watch.

Old Support New Resistance $550

*Daily Line Chart

9-23-2013 9-39-09 PM

Check out this long term uptrend support that could possibly become new resistance which is coinciding with that horizontal resistance level $550.

This is why I think $550 is going to be that ultimate target before it pulls back hard.  This uptrend line has been served as strong support for quiet sometime so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this uptrend support acting as new resistance. Definitely level to watch.

Fib. 50% Retracement Level $550

9-24-2013 10-11-04 AM

Like I talked about on my last article why $450 level was very important level if $AAPL was going to bounce because so many different analysis was confirming that price level. Well now we have similar conclusion here with the price level of $550 as we have horizontal support level, old uptrend support level and fib. level all coinciding and in syncing and pointing to $550.   Once we break above $515, I do think it’s going to pick up some speed to reach $550 but $530 will trying to slow things down but ultimately I think $AAPL is eyeing on $550 before the next ER.

 

Bonus Charts

 

Oscillators Insinuation

*Chart screened on 9/24/13 after market close
 9-24-2013 7-42-00 PM

Daily Full Stoch, RSI, MFI

 

B-Bands Middle Line

*Chart screened @ 12:35pm CST on 9/26/13

9-26-2013 12-30-11 PM

If $AAPL can manage to stay above the middle line and bounce from this level, I do believe that we may see the trend continue to the upside and puncture the upper band in the near future.

 

Fib Expansion Target $550

 
*Chart screened and analysis added on 10/13/13

10-12-2013 8-56-05 PM

Fib. Expansion level also suggests that $550 being possible major resistance level if we can break above $510.  Again this is not a “holy grail” price point where it’s 100% guaranteed that it’s going to get there but as we can see on this article and the analysis I have done, this is the level ($550) that continues to come up and coinciding with multiple analysis.  When that happens, that’s when I pay attention as the chart is trying to tell us something.

 

Bullish Continuation Pattern

 
*Chart screened and analysis added on 10/13/13

(Weekly Chart)

10-13-2013 12-49-22 AM

If we breakout of this recent triangle pattern, I see some big moves to the upside with potential target of $550 and beyond.



About the Author

Kay Kim
Kay Kim
Kay Kim is a equity-market options trader/investor, the Founder of TrueVine Capital, Inc. and the Owner/CFO of Lucky Klover, Inc. . Kay has been involved with the market since 2007 with extensive research and development on technical analysis. Though, Kay may not have 20+ years of experience, he makes it up with his in-depth technical analysis knowledge and long-term forecasts.




 
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30 comments
Time2Trade
Time2Trade

Great analysis. Earning beat and China Mobile will propel stock price. Plus continuation of stock repurchase and value investors stepping in.

agni123
agni123

in one of the threads I had mentioned that AAPL is at the start of Elliott wave 3.  Upon looking further I stand corrected. It is at the start of Wave 5 and I have a long term target of 790ish for AAPL. If someone wants the actual chart indicating the wave structure contact me. agnikarthik at    gmail.com

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

Kay, nice move on AAPL today.

Back to that 490 close, 492 intraday ceiling.

Still unable to break it.

Closed all my calls. But will hop back in if it breaks 492. Maybe tomorrow if they announce iPad refresh event. I will wait to see if it happens. Break out could mean we see that 510 whenever it happens.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

Supply issues involving new iPad mini?

Does that mean no new iPad refresh?

or maybe iPad refresh without the mini?

I will keep an eye out for news on Oct 8. That is the day they will announce event or not.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

previous bottom at 490? (sept 6 and 10) Now new ceiling? (sept 23 & 24 close).

Having a hard time closing higher past 490 today. going to see if it can break it today or tomorrow.

Sold all calls today.

Hard for me to buy puts with potential apple event less than 2 weeks away. Better to wait for pullback and buy on dip.

We could see pennant forming next few days. Have to see the action on Apple next few days.

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

Added Fib. 50% retracement level chart

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

WOW, even good news is not moving the needle. Announcement of Yellen for new Fed chairman is not moving market up either.

All summer long, bad news wouldn't stop this market, now we see that no good news is going to bring it back up. Looks like you were right Kay. Overbought market. Apple does look like crap and so does the rest of the market.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

Didn't close above 490. Looks close to a gravestone doji today. It was until it popped up last 5mins of trading. No news of iPad refresh tomorrow will mean that rumors of supply constraints delay for iPad mini retna could be true. No news I can think of then until earnings which could mean a downward trend. Government isn't helping either. Trading range between 477/480 to 490/492 right now is what I am seeing. Have to see us break out above or below on news and strong volume. Volume looked good today but really faded second half of day.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

If nothing happens tomorrow AND apple still unable to break 490 then I'm buying puts on a double top. The only other thing I can see happening is if the government re-opens. Not likely anytime soon.

Good luck.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

Nice breakout today!

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

Also noticed that last time Icahn opened his mouth saying he got a position in Apple, it shot up to $489.57 on Aug 13. We hit that level today so we are right back to where we were then. Not sure if can go higher right now unless other news comes up. It was iPhone event that pushed it up to $500+

And that didn't go well even though they sold 9 million phones, it didn't hold up on the news.

Also had a volume of 31 million shares that day Icahn announced but only 8.5 million so far. Maybe finish between 10-12 million which is the daily average at best.

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@Zex_M19 once market starts to bounce, i think $AAPL can try to rally in that environment

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@Zex_M19 yea i knew it was gonna b tough for aapl to survive while the market was seeing weakness today.  With that gravestone doji, another bearish pressure for short-term.   I have a feeling its gonna be tough to swing trade aapl as now its starting to lose it bullish momentum and start to get into the sideways movement.  

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@Zex_M19 $AAPL looking very nice this morning despite the fact that whole market is showing weakness.  If we can close well above $490, I think we can see above $500 soon

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@Zex_M19 yea if you look at the charts however, today if we close strong, its another higher low (daily) thus trend is becoming more solid.  I think if we close strong today, we can get to $510 pretty quickly here.  I am pretty optimistic after todays move!

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@Zex_M19 holding up well so far and with the broad market looking bullish.. ill be watching aapl closely here

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

@2kaykim and here we are back at 490. what a shocker. If I channel traded this, i would be rich by now. don't think 490 will break. it didn't break on any of the other good news. Unless something REALLY big happens.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

@2kaykim @Zex_M19 SIdeways trading holding. AAPL bounce off that 477/480 mark...again. We are definitely in a channel. Market probably have a relief bounce tomorrow or Friday. Shorts made good money and they don't want to hold anything over the weekend and lose gains if government does anything. Just like last week but even more so this week cause the market is down more. So plenty of shorts that can take profits by end of week. AAPL bounce back to 490?

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

@2kaykim @Zex_M19 Kay, things look grim overall. I was going to buy puts by end of day last friday on GOOG and PCLN. MAN! I wish I did! market was expecting something to happen over the weekend. I didn't think they  would come to an agreement. Lots of stocks have given back any gains from last few days. Stock charts like AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, TSLA all look like hills. Up and down to previous levels so now we have to see if those previous supports breaks. AAPL is near 480 support, GOOG is near 850 support, TSLA near 170 support, and PCLN near 1,000 support. Even NFLX near 300 support.

All because of government shutdown. I'm sure they will get this resolved and when they do, these are the stocks I want to buy calls in. There will be a 2 day massive rally at least. I am sitting on the sidelines until that happens. With so many high flying stocks near support levels, I wonder if it will hold and get a relief rally this week or if they just break. Tomorrow will be key.

Keep your power dry (stay in cash) and wait for the day they open up the government for huge move up Kay.

FYI, YUM just reported...NOT GOOD!

But I am bullish earnings for AAPL, FB, and TSLA. I know NFLX, PCLN, and LNKD will do well too but not sure if they will move up after reporting. FB is the most bullish.

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@Zex_M19 AAPL looks like crap to go long right now just like the whole market. i have a feeling its probably not going over $510 before ER.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

@2kaykim @Zex_M19 No announcement yet on iPad event. If it doesn't happen by mid-day today, we could see this headed to that 477/480 mark pretty fast.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

@2kaykim @Zex_M19 yes, agree. That 490 level has been a concern for me so if we close above that today, we should see that 500 soon. Took a dip to 490 but probably to fill some orders because of that quick spike (retrace), now back above $491 again. Good bounce back. Maybe that 490 is now acting as a support. Will have to see how this plays out for rest of day. I wouldn't be surprised to see it up 5-6 points today.

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@Zex_M19 yea lets see if we can get above $500 this week. Even if we can get above $490 and stay above there for few days, we can get to $510

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@Zex_M19 @2kaykim sure is.  looking for $500, $510, $530.  As long as market doesn't tANK, I think we can see some good days until next ER on $AAPL

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

@2kaykim Looks like a nice finish today Kay. We could see that $500+ this week.

Zex_M19
Zex_M19

@2kaykim @Zex_M19 yes, I noticed that after today, we have a very long green (at least 10 points). Chart would look strange if it went back down. maybe forming some sort of wedge but so far higher highs and higher lows after that big drop after iPhone introduction. If it closes past $495 this week then it would hit a newer high. Gap got filled and now a bounce up. Like I said, Ipad refresh soon could keep this going. I like charts but I need news or events to support moves. earnings coming soon too. I believe they report on a Friday. That's so strange!

2kaykim
2kaykim moderator

@mrlami @2kaykim i got back in early this morning (i will b posting new journal entry tonight) 

mrlami
mrlami

@2kaykim were you stopped out of AAPL calls completely? Did you re-enter?