Last Update: 5.16.13
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Related Articles
Article from 9.28.12 – “10 Reasons of Why I am Extremely Bearish on $AAPL“
Article from 12.15.12 – “Why I Believe $AAPL is Headed $360“
Article from 1.1.13 – “Short-term Bullish Trade Idea Gone Rogue $AAPL“
Article from 2.12.13 – “Why I Entered Bearish Today on $AAPL” (Part 1)
Article from 3.27.13 – “Why I Entered Bearish on $AAPL” (Part 2)
Article from 4.12.13 – “Not Another Bearish Entry on $AAPL” (Part 1)
Recent Video from 5.6.13: “$AAPL Bottomed? Exploring Bullish Arguments”
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5.14.13 Tuesday
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Entered Bearish Positions @ $447.30
For about a week or so it looked as though $AAPL was forming bullish flag just under the 100SMA (blue) and $465 resistance but broke down today and reclaimed 10EMA to the downside. I waited after a flash crash until it bounced a little bit to enter short (about 1 hour and half before close) to find myself just little bit better entry. We are trading below 10EMA currently and its imperative for bears that $AAPL close below 10EMA but not expect to close below 50EMA today (That will be the next obstacle to worry about for the bears).
There were 4 other indications that if $450 level didn’t hold, $AAPL could roll over.
[1] Full Stochastic
This chart pretty much explains the possibility here
[2] Parabolics SAR
Parabolics agree that the momentum is starting shift to the downside.
[3] 10 EMA
Not a good sign when $AAPL closes below 10EMA looking at the historical data here.
[4] Volume
This is what I call, “Volume Breakout”. This recent uptrend move was slowly losing momentum as it was not able to put higher volume and today as $AAPL broke down, volume also spiked. Currently $AAPL is just sitting on 50EMA which has been acting as very strong resistance in the past so I won’t be surprised to see 50EMA slowing things down tomorrow.
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5.15.13 Tuesday
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[At Open] Added More Bearish Positions @ $438.77
As I was talking on yesterday’s update that 50EMA (pink) could possibly slow things down but now we don’t have to worry about it since it gaped right through it. I believe we are going to see $420 pretty quickly here.
[After Close] Closed 1/2 Positions Earlier @ $424.18
As soon as it tagged that support line at around $420, I closed 1/2 of my bearish positions. Now just riding other half to see how it’s going to react to that level of $420. We had very high volume today to confirm the heavy selling so I am curious to see how it’s going to react rest of the week.
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5.16.13 Thursday
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All Positions Closed Out @ $432.25
Possible bullish piercing reversal pattern forming here though we wouldn’t know until close but bulls are strong this morning at $420 level. If we can sustain this level, we might be also forming Inv. H&S pattern which could become the catalyst of this bottom process.
15 thoughts on “Not Another Bearish Entry on $AAPL (Part 2)”
Thanks for the post. I have a few shares of $AAPL, and overall, I’m long on the stock, but with this downward trend, what do you think about selling off and repurchasing at a lower price? Or does it make more sense to just short the stock instead of selling.
Long on Long I personally wouldn’t like to hold anything long after today’s move. If 50EMA breaks this week, we are probably going to $420. That’s very important level but even if that breaks, back down to $385.
Just an update, I missed out on shorting the stock this morning at open, so now i’ll see if this hits $385 and try and ride it back up.
Thanks for updating Kim!
Do you think AAPL will survive a market correction? I mean, will it drop lower than $360? or is that anyone’s guess? I’m holding this stock for so long and I’m at a loss and wondering if I should just cut the cord before it drops lower…please help!
INeedhelp if market corrects heavily, $AAPL probably wont survive. I mean market is BULLISH but $AAPL is tanking so you can definitely see the fragile state of this name. If anything this is the time for $AAPL to make any kind of progress while overall market is up.
2kaykim INeedhelp Thanks Kim. I will take my losses and cut my holdings soon. Such a shame that the stock keeps tanking.
Bought some calls this morning. Very little to test that $420. I think it will hold to form the inverted head and shoulders.
time to short Aapl again? Looks like it still needs to re-test 390 and lack of follow through this week was disappointing.
dodger1k hmm yea not shortable yet . Things are not the same anymore because $AAP now trading above 100SMA, 10/20/50EMAs so until we break below those moving averages, i probably won’t be shorting it. and to nullify the possibly Inv. H&S, it needs to break below $420
Looks like resistance right below $400 (498-499?).
Keeps getting tested.
If it fails, no doubt we see re-test of $385 lows. And God help us if THAT fails. I have a few puts that I am holding on to just in case. A small amount. Hopefully turn into a big amount in the next several days. 🙂
Ooops. I meant resistance at 398-399.
It’s back there again right now.
Let’s see if it holds.
Pennant forming?
Looking at chart from last 3 days, looks like lower highs and lows constant at 398.
At this rate we could see the tip forming most likely on Friday or maybe even Monday.
Big move then? If market resumes selling at end of week then maybe AAPL finally breaks down but that 398 is VERY strong. Tested many times last few days. Apple buy back at that level? Who knows.
Broken! Holy stock drop Batman!
Hope it hits that 385 tomorrow.
Zex_M19 Closed out my puts today.
bought a few calls that expire next week for a bounce.
expecting a quick 5-10 point bounce.
could see a doji morning star today