Last Update: 4.15.13
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4.3.13 Wednesday
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Entered Bearish (Puts) Positions @ $811.09
We are seeing possible H&S formation here and I am wondering if we are creating right shoulder thus creating resistance at $814 vicinity.
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4.4.13 Thursday
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Weakness Continues
We did have slight gap down this morning (body gap) which means we are seeing very rapid momentum shifting here. Because we gapped up on Tuesday but we gapped down this morning so it has sentiment of Island Reversal though it is not a true Island Reversal but definitely it has that sentiment.
50EMA (pink) is where I will be watching tomorrow to see if we can break below that level. 50EMA has been strong support in the past (see arrows) so that’s the level I will have to be cautious about.
(Weekly)
We have confirmed bearish divergence on Stoch, RSI, and MFI currently. MACD (not in the chart) is not confirmed yet but close. Again for this chart being weekly, it could take few more weeks to see if it’s really going to play but from the looks of it, we are probably in the middle of this divergence playing out.
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4.5.13 Friday
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Still Holding Full Positions but Problem!
Problem 1: Gap down Hammer (could be lethal!)
Problem 2: Hammer with High Volume (could be deadly!)
Possible Solution: Early next week, $GOOG comes up to test that neckline resistance at $795ish and if that neckline holds, we could see $GOOG coming back down again which that could nullify the potency of that hammer. But its definitely concerning. Looking at the weekly chart and the oscillators, still looks bearish which gives me some comfort. For that H&S to play out, the neckline must hold.
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4.8.13 Monday
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Closed 1/2 of My Bearish Positions @ $770.10
I wouldn’t be surprised to see $GOOG coming back up to test that $786-$792 (gap area) as new resistance before another bearish run.
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4.11.13 Thursday
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Added More Bearish Positions @ $791.81 (at open)
(Chart screened at open this morning)
We did have bulls coming back towards to the end of the day leaving long lower wick but the volume has been somewhat weak. They are not totally bad but seems little weak there. I am currently looking at this H&S pattern neckline resistance to hold and possibly bring bears back for lower prices with target at around $755ish where 100SMA is hanging out.
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4.12.13 Friday
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Added More Bearish Positions @ $790.95
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4.15.13 Monday
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Holding All Positions
H&S neckline tested, rejected, and now trading lower. I have three more days before the ER to get out of this trade. I am expecting few days of bearish run after looking at today’s volatility and increasing in selling pressure. $773-$770 is going to be next support to break to find some momentum to travel lower. I am thinking about $755 by Thursday.
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4.17.13 Wednesday
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Completely Out of the Trade
ER is tomorrow after close and I don’t hold anything through ER so I decided to close this out today. I probably could have waited one more day until tomorrow but I just didn’t want to caught up in the volatility before the ER.
22 thoughts on “Not Another Head & Shoulders Analysis $GOOG”
Hey kim would you consider going long for a couple of days seeing it went down too far too fast? $813.04 on April 2, and now its $782.21 on April 5. Thats a $30.83 drop in 3 days! Even if it were to drop more it usually consolidates a couple of days since short term oversold. Keep up the good work!
Killerfunpizza1 I wouldn’t cuz i dun day trade or get into a trade for few days. any pop it gets, I will add more.
Oh btw, on a off-related topic from google… do you see amazon forming a right shoulder and thus making a head and shoulder pattern? (The right shoulder starts on Feb, 13), do you think 2 months is too long of a time to form this pattern?
Killerfunpizza1 not a H&S on $AMZN because of all the commotion on January.
Nice, always a good trade gain or loss when you analyze from both sides…no such thing as “I know where its going” freakin genius technical trader…learning to take the time and look for more set ups to enter swing positions.
If GOOG really is in a head and shoulders, the earnings could get ugly and push this down as fast and hard as AAPL did back in Oct/Nov 2012. Many bad news last several weeks but market kept ignoring and kept marching higher. Ridiculous! Holding all my puts in AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, GLD. Could take some off table if down big tomorrow in some of these. Good Luck!
-Zex
GOOG earnings today after close. Let’s see if this really is the next AAPL.
Zex_M19 $GOOG ER is tomorrow after close 4/18/13
2kaykim Zex_M19 You’re right! It is Thursday. Why did i think it was today? Thanks for the heads up!!! 1 day can make a big difference. Especially when trading options. Those Friday options could go crazy.
2kaykim
WOW Kay! GOOG missed big time when all other companies were beating estimates.OK,
this is what happened to AAPL 1 year ago. They reported a bad quarter
and then followed that up with another bad one. Could GOOG be following
in it’s footsteps? IF GOOG is gonna form a head and shoulders (a real
one this time) then the right shoulder should be around 860-865….Guess
what? That’s where it is in after market trading right now!
2kaykim Always happens when they start talking about a stock hitting $1000.
Zex_M19 my goodness! yea its at about 865 right now. yes possible massive size h&s
Zex_M19 right same with $AAPL
Zex_M19 Abigail thinks $GOOG possibly going to $675 http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/soon-google-1-000-174331949.html
2kaykim Yeah, no matter what bad news, market keeps going higher but the reason is cause there is no where else to put your money. so as long as market goes higher, they will keep putting more in, causing it to go higher. LOL!
So market not going up based on fundamentals. NO GOOD! NOT SUSTAINABLE! I already predicted a crash by end of this year or early next year.
Looks like GOOG can’t close above that 910 mark. gapped filled.
added to more of my puts today when it was 3 points down this morning. now over 7 points down.
Bad apple earnings could move GOOG lower tomorrow. Remember GOOG missed. and it missed by over 11%. it beat by 8.6% before and beat 1.6% before that. Looks like $900+ price was to include a huge beat. Not even close.
Hello:
Off topic: Someone trading CIEN lately? Kay, could you look into it and give me some feedback. Thanks
OneupDouble yea break below $14.45, it could lead to further bearishness
2kaykim OneupDouble Thank you. I’ll wait for some pull back. BTW, your analysis on AAPL written on 12/15/12 is a great piece of work. I was waiting for it to drop around 400 and it did. I got some but losing a few pennies now. I recommend you send your work to SeekingAlpha.com. You’ll have a lot more investors following your site.
OneupDouble thank you for your kind words. I thought seekingalpha.com is more for fundamental articles?? maybe I am wrong. Well because I am strictly technical. I will keep that in mind though. =)
2kaykim OneupDouble
A lot of investors will choose stocks based on the fundamentals but the buying and selling timing will be based on the technical side. Your technical ability is uncanny and extraordinary; I haven’t met anyone with your skills. I love to see you covering more stocks. I’ll keep following your blog in the future. Thank you.
Today Goog went up $33 closed right below the 50MA 801.35. Did it confirm H&S and is it still a short candidate possibly next week. I dumped all my shares last week.
OneupDouble looks mighty strong today. I need to see where the action next week. I am stll leaning towards to bearishness rolling in on this name.