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12.29.12 Saturday

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Watch Uptrend Support

(Daily Chart)

100SMA: Watch Out For Fake Downside Break-Out

(Daily Chart, 100SMA, 200SMA (pink))

We are trading at a critical level here for Home Depot.

Over 2 years in the making uptrend support must hold to continue bullish or else we might be looking at some intermediate bearish trend happening here.

Here are my trade setups.

Bullish Play

Close above $62 level (above 10/20EMAs) would get me to jump in bullish positions.

Targets: $66 and beyond

Bearish Play

Little tricky for  bearish play because we’ve had fake downside break-out on the 5/21/12 (see first arrow) so I want to make sure I don’t get whipsawed here. I will be watching it on intra-day and see where it trades and if it starts to trade below 100SMA with pretty convincing bearish candle with good volume, I’d jump in bearish 20mins before close.

More conservative play would be wait until it close and put bearish trigger just below that candle.

Target: $56 area where 200SMA is hanging out.  If we can break 200SMA, $53 and $50.

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12.31.12 Monday

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Entered Bullish @ $60.71

(Daily Chart | 20EMA (Light Blue), 100SMA (Blue))

So I entered bullish pretty early this morning and it paid off so far however we have 20EMA hanging out just above to possibly push the bulls down as it has done it before (see arrow).   I think if we can close above 20EMA with convincing bullish candle, we can find some bullish momentum to really push this thing through.

Last Two Candle Formations: We have bullish engulfing pattern with Marubozu candle today. These are very strong bullish signals and it needs to be confirmed by follow through on Wednesday with another strong day with close.

100SMA (blue) has been the savior so far for $HD!

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1.2.13 Wednesday

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Held Up Well

(Daily Chart | 20EMA-Light Blue, 100SMA-Blue)

Nice gap up this morning and as long as we can keep that gap open this week (possible break away gap) and close above recent resistance of $63.30, we can probably make it to $66 vicinity.  Also increasing volume is definitely a PLUS!

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1.8.13 Tuesday

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Still Holding Bullish Positions

(Daily Chart | 20EMA-Light Blue, 100SMA-Blue)

Found some support at 20EMA (see arrow) last two days as I have been anticipating on that scenario but the challenge is to close above January 3rd’s high which is at around $64.00.

Volume has been extremely weak for about a month now which that worries me on my bullish positions here.   We would really need some volume to pick up to find some health on this possible bullish trend forming here.

Gap is still open (yellow shaded) which is a good sign that it could be classified as Break-away Gap but it’s not confirmed until we find some solid uptrend established.  I am hoping we could close above $64 tomorrow.

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1.10.13 Thursday

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10EMA Continue To Support Bulls

Its good to see finally bulls are making “SOME” move here and also good to see just a tiny bit of volume spike.  We will need more volume tomorrow if we want to push through this resistance we are trading under.

10EMA has been a champ last 4 days really supporting the bulls and it helped me out greatly because my stops were just below 10EMA and still is. We must close above $64 tomorrow if we want to see $65-$66 level once again.

Cautionary Candle Formation: Today candle is what we call a “Hangman” candle formation. This hangman candle formation is a great Hammer candle when it happens in the bottom of the downtrend but when it does happen at resistance could work against Bulls.   I will be watching tomorrow.

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1.14.13 Monday11:16AM CT

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Completely Closed Out Long Positions @ $63.65

Running into resistance, volume is VERY VERY weak. No way we are going to push through recent resistance. I will be watching closely and find another bullish entry after some pull back.