WE ARE STILL in BEARISH TREND. TREND HAS NOT BEEN BROKEN YET.
As we have been saying that the Fib. Retracement Zone was not broken. just several days ago,we traded right up to Fib. 38.2% level we tanked! That was the MAJOR pivot point to pass on before we confirm the trend change.
Same story on S&P 500 INDEX
NASDAQ INDEX: we couldn’t quit get to 38.2% but we traded up to 50% retracement zone and we tanked.
DOW JONES: 100SMA also played HUGE part of this bearishness last Thursday.
SO NOW WHAT?
well we could see little bit more retracement from the long bearish candle last Thursday. we might trade just a little bit bullish until we hit that current down trend line (blue).
if we could close below 12500, we might 12,300. That red uptrend line is very strong line which is from Aug 2009. On June 5th when the market bounced, it was right on that uptrend line from Aug 09. so we might trade back down to it and test it..
We really think we might be forming a crazy channel like back in Aug 2011 between 100 & 200SMA. All in all, we are still BEARISH in the market.